 President Lee Myung-bak, left, shakes hands with a Korean government official working in Russia upon his arrival at Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg, Russia, Tuesday. / Yonhap |
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia ― Russia-North Korea ties have shown signs of entering a new chapter as the two sides stepped up efforts to cooperate in trade and a gas pipeline over the past few months.
The Kremlin halted nearly all assistance to the North, including natural gas, shortly after the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1989.
Seoul is calculating whether warming relations between the Cold War-era allies are good or bad for it.
Experts say North Korea’s trade and increased cooperation are likely to limit the options that the South can take in case its northern neighbor commits provocative acts.
In August, Russia and North Korea agreed to construct an approximately 1,100 kilometer-long pipeline to send Russian gas to South Korea via the North during the Russia-North Korea Summit held in Ulan-Ude in Sakhalin.
In September, South Korea’s state-run Korea Gas Corporation and Russia’s state-run gas corporation, Gazprom, agreed on a road map for the pipeline project.
Some people in South Korea are concerned about the trans-Korea pipeline project as political risks lurk in the deal. South Koreans are worried over the North’s possible sabotage of the pipeline.
Experts say the provocative North could take advantage of the trilateral economic project. It could steal gas or turn the pipeline off to get what it wants, they say.
Talks on the project between Russia and North Korea were followed by Russia’s sending the first cargo train through a restored railway connecting the Russia’s far eastern city of Khasan to North Korea’s northeastern port city of Rajin in October.
The 52-kilometer rail link is expected to facilitate trade between the two nations. Russia is also constructing a cargo terminal in the North Korean port city.
A Russia expert in Seoul warned of the negative fallout of Russia-North Korea relations on South Korea, stating they could undercut the efficacy of sanctions imposed on North Korea.
The Cold War allies’ joint effort to improve relations could create a hostile environment for South Korea, as well as the United States, to handle the North Korean nuclear weapons program, he said asking for anonymity.
“Washington officials have a hard time convincing their Chinese counterparts to play a constructive role in North Korea. If Russia and North Korea are getting closer in terms of trade and cooperation in other areas, we cannot rule out the possibility that Russia plays a similar role that China did in the North Korea issue,” he said.
China faced mounting pressure to play a role in North Korea’s nuclear ambition, but China’s reportedly strategic interests, such as a refugee issue in case of a sudden regime change in the North, limited its options.
The above expert noted the ramifications of the ongoing pipeline talk could go far beyond Russia’s securing a large market on the peninsula.
He indicated deepening Russia-North Korea ties will likely change the geopolitical landscape of Northeast Asia.
If the pipeline is constructed after a trilateral agreement, Russia will likely be in a position to exert greater influence on the Korean Peninsula.
During a forum held at a hotel on Jeju Island in October, Yuri Akimov, professor of North American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, said the Kremlin sought to improve relations with North Korea.
He said security in Northeast Asia is heavily affected by the Korean Peninsula and such power states as the United States and China are in competition to increase their influence in the region.
“Russia intends to play a role as a balancer amid the U.S.-China rivalry in the region,” he said through an interpreter.
On the North Korea side, the impoverished economy can reduce its heavy reliance on its neighbor China, its decades-long benefactor, if it builds solid trade ties with Russia.
North Korea is reportedly wary of China’s growing influence after the North’s trade reliance on the world’s number two economy grew after multi-layered sanctions were imposed.
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