By Kim Young-jin
President Lee Myung-bak’s remark that a gas pipeline project involving Russia and the two Koreas could move forward faster than expected was a “shocking” move given the North’s recent track record on inter-Korean projects, an expert said.
Lee made the remark Thursday during a televised debate, saying both Koreas were in bilateral talks with Russia, which is pushing the project.
It came as Pyongyang threatens to dispose of South Korea-owned assets at the Mt. Geumgang resort in the North, the site of a stalled joint tourism project, after recently seizing the properties.
“I am shocked he would even raise the possibility of building a pipeline when North Korea has just nationalized the Mt. Geumgang tourist facilities,” said Peter Beck, the Council on Foreign Relations-Hitachi Research Fellow at Keio University's Institute of East Asian Studies.
“It sends a horrible signal to North Korea that there are no consequences to taking facilities from Hyundai.”
The project, which would build a pipeline shipping Siberian natural gas to the South via the North, gained momentum last month when North Korean leader Kim Jong-il told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev he supported it.
Kim reportedly went as far as agreeing to permit the pipeline project if Moscow and Seoul signed a contract on the project.
In the latest sign of momentum, Russia on Thursday opened an 18-hundred kilometer-long pipeline connecting the untapped gas fields off Sakhalin Island, Khabarovsk, with Vladivostok. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said the long-term goal of the pipeline is for it to become a hub of energy for the region including Korea and Japan.
Pyongyang and Moscow agreed to set up a committee to push for the project. Reports here said officials from Russian energy giant Gazprom would meet with counterparts at the state-run Korea Gas Corp. this month to discuss technical details of the project.
Ruling party officials say the project could become a “turning point” for inter-Korean relations.
But analysts are concerned that Pyongyang could use the pipeline as political leverage, as it has the mountain resort. Many say asset disposal threat is a brinksmanship tactic to goad Seoul to resume the once-lucrative tours.
Tensions remain high on the peninsula since Pyongyang sank the warship Cheonan and shelled Yeonpyeong Island last year. Though recent bilateral contact has cooled the atmosphere, such gains have been offset by the ongoing spat over Mt. Geumgang.
Beck, who opened the International Crisis Group’s Northeast Asia Project in Seoul, said that Seoul should set strict conditions before moving forward with the lucrative deal.
“They need to return the facilities to Hyundai Asan and pledge not engage in provocations,” Beck said. “I would not even consider a pipeline until those two conditions are met.”
The project could earn the impoverished North up to $150 million a year, while Moscow would boost its role in the region and access to the lucrative southern market and possibly Japan. Korea Gas Corp. is the world’s biggest importer of liquefied natural gas.
Beck said that at this point, the project could still be a “pipe dream” pushed by Russia to boost its image in the region.