 2005년 영화” Alient Planet”의 한 장면 |
Many astrologists supported the so-called Drake Equation in the past few years, and suggested that the mankind will most likely encounter another advanced extraterrestrial civilization in the next 20 years.
To the contrary, however, David S. Spiegel of Princeton University and Edwin L. Turner of the University of Tokyo coauthored a report and claimed that the Drake Equation is deeply flawed.
Frank Drake of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) created the formula in the 1960s by considering various conditions to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations within our galaxy.
This equation suggested that there are approximately 10,000 civilizations with the capacity for interstellar communication. Some interpretations of the equation theorized that alien civilizations may make “first contact” with humans within the next two decades.
Such conclusions were a result of “unrealistically” (as Spiegel and Turner put it) optimistic suggestion that life form is inevitable in a rocky planet with atmosphere and liquid water.
This view is indeed an assumption of many believers of the Drake Equation, like Andrei Finkelstein who claimed that “genesis of life is as inevitable as the formation of atoms.” Finkelstein, in the same speech, also expressed his belief that alien civilizations will be found in the next 20 years.
Spiegel and Turner based their counterclaim on the Bayesian statistical framework which suggested that the likelihood of existence and inexistence of life are both “infinitesimal.”
If life does not exist in every planet that fits the conditions set by the Drake Equation, then humanity may need far more than 20 years to discover life beyond our own planet.
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