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Fri, May 27, 2022 | 15:56
Science
’No, we will not find ET in 20 years’
가까운 미래에 외계문명을 발견하지 못할 것
Posted : 2011-07-26 17:29
Updated : 2011-07-26 17:29
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2005년 영화” Alient Planet”의 한 장면

Many astrologists supported the so-called Drake Equation in the past few years, and suggested that the mankind will most likely encounter another advanced extraterrestrial civilization in the next 20 years.

To the contrary, however, David S. Spiegel of Princeton University and Edwin L. Turner of the University of Tokyo coauthored a report and claimed that the Drake Equation is deeply flawed.

Frank Drake of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) created the formula in the 1960s by considering various conditions to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations within our galaxy.

This equation suggested that there are approximately 10,000 civilizations with the capacity for interstellar communication. Some interpretations of the equation theorized that alien civilizations may make “first contact” with humans within the next two decades.

Such conclusions were a result of “unrealistically” (as Spiegel and Turner put it) optimistic suggestion that life form is inevitable in a rocky planet with atmosphere and liquid water.

This view is indeed an assumption of many believers of the Drake Equation, like Andrei Finkelstein who claimed that “genesis of life is as inevitable as the formation of atoms.” Finkelstein, in the same speech, also expressed his belief that alien civilizations will be found in the next 20 years.

Spiegel and Turner based their counterclaim on the Bayesian statistical framework which suggested that the likelihood of existence and inexistence of life are both “infinitesimal.”

If life does not exist in every planet that fits the conditions set by the Drake Equation, then humanity may need far more than 20 years to discover life beyond our own planet.

가까운 미래에 외계문명을 발견하지 못할 것
드레이크 공식은 지난 몇 년간 많은 과학자들에게 받아왔다. 심지어 상당수의 과학자들은 이 공식을 사용해서 외계문명을 앞으로 20년 이내에 만날 수 있을 것이라는 추측을 발표하기도 하였다. 하지만 프린스턴대와 도쿄대의 스피겔과 터너는 이 공식 자체가 틀렸다고 주장하는 논문을 물리학 웹저널인 arXiv.org에다 발표하였다. 외계지적생명체탐사계획 (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence “SETI”)의 일부였던 프랭크 드레이크가 만든 이 공식은 1960년대에 생명체가 있을 수 있게 하는 필요조건들을 바탕으로 만든 공식으로서 우리은하계에 대략적으로 몇 개의 외계문명이 있느냐를 예측하려는 것이 목표였다. 이 공식은 우리 은하계에 약 만개의 외계문명이 있다고 하였는데, 어떤 과학자들은 이 공식을 바탕으로 20년 내에 외계문명을 발견하거나 연락을 받을 수 있을 것이라는 추측을 한 것이다. 스피겔과 터너는 이 공식은 생명체가 액체형태의 물과 대기가 있는 고체행성에서는 무조건 생길 거라는 “비현실적인” 가정을 바탕으로 한 것이라고 주장하였다. 실제로 필요조건만 맞는다면 꼭 생명체가 있을 것이라는 건 많은 과학자들이 믿고 있는 가정이다. 러시아의 천체학계에서는 유명한 안드레이 핑켈스타인 역시 이런 믿음을 표시한 바 있으며, 이 과학자 역시 앞으로 20년 내로 외계문명을 만날 것이라는 발표를 한 적이 있다. 이 두 과학자들이 바탕으로 한 베이즈 통계학 이론은 “생명이 있을 확률은 없을 확률만큼 작다”라는 믿음을 중심으로 만들어진 이론이다. 드레이크 공식이 고려한 모든 조건이 맞는 행성에서도 삶이 발견되지 않는다면 인류는 20년보다 훨씬 더 긴 세월을 기다려야 될지도 모른다.
 
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