By Kim Young-jin
North Korea’s suspected proliferation of weapons materials would come back to haunt the Kim Jong-il regime in a fatal way if they were used against the United States, a former U.S. intelligence director said.
“North Korea seems willing to sell weapons and maybe even nuclear materials to other countries,” Dennis Blair, who recently served as President Barack Obama’s director of national intelligence, told Voice of America. “If...one of those countries or groups were to use them against the United States, I’m sure the U.S. would retaliate very strongly and that would probably be the end of the North Korean regime.”
“Yet the North seems determined to sell as many things as it can get away with, as long as they can keep it a secret. There’s a chance for miscalculation there.”
Concerns are rising over the North’s apparent proliferation of weapons and related materials to such countries as Myanmar, Iran and Syria.
The sentiment was reinforced last month when a North Korean freighter suspected of containing illegal weapons and apparently en route to Myanmar was intercepted by a U.S. destroyer in waters off the coasts of China. The North is under an arms embargo due to international sanctions for its nuclear program.
Blair said proliferation was the biggest North Korean threat facing Washington’s interests because Pyongyang would be wary of instigating a war on the peninsula given the U.S. military presence.
He also expressed concern over a “network of countries” which trade illegal information and help each other develop weapons including North Korea, Pakistan, Iran and Syria.
“I think North Korea, which had contacts with those countries for some of its illegal arms sales, was probably trying to get information in return. Some of the information that would be most valuable to them would be centrifuge enrichment and other nuclear things,” he said.
In regard to the succession underway from leader Kim to his youngest son, Jong-un, Blair said he expected to see the ruling family come up against stiff challenges.
“With such a suspicious and paranoid character as Kim Jong-il, I doubt it will be a very smooth and trouble-free process. I would imagine there would be bumps on the road,” he said. Kim Jong-un emerged as the heir when he was elevated to a four-star general last year.
The biggest opposition could come in the case of the sudden death of the incumbent leader, who suffered a stroke in 2008. Many expect figures close to Jong-un, such as his uncle Jang Song-taek to shepherd the young man to power.
“In the short term that group of influential people around the presidency will hang around and make sure it’s a smooth situation. After that there probably will be some sort of struggle for succession and I think it will include the leadership at the top with Kim Jong-un a part of it.
The retired Admiral did not like the chances of that recent uprisings known as the “Arab Spring” would spread into the isolated North.
“As closed as North Korea is to the outside world, as desperate as the poverty is, I just don’t see the materials for a bottom-up revolution as we have seen in many of Mideast and North African countries,” he said.