By Kang Hyun-kyung
China has made headlines again of late as it threatened its neighbors over disputed territory in the South China Sea and registered “Arirang,” a Korean folk song, as one of its intangible cultural heritages.
Some experts raised the possibility that Beijing’s recent behavior might be associated with a show of resolve by its next leader to strengthen his credentials.
Bonnie Glaser, a senior fellow and Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that the leadership succession may be one factor.
She noted, “No Chinese leader at any time can benefit from being seen as too soft on issues pertaining to sovereignty.
The expert stated there is likely more than one factor that explains Beijing’s recent moves and its approach.
“There is growing pressure from many different actors and interest groups in China on the leadership to protect Chinese interests,” Glaser said.
Xi Jinping, China’s vice president and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, is reportedly to replace incumbent President Hu Jintao late next year.
With a leadership succession underway, some experts made the point that those who replace their predecessors tend to exert influence over major policy areas and take a tougher stance on issues related to sovereignty or threats.
In 2000, then Vice President Hu, who was being groomed for the top job, pushed out dissenting scholars to show that he could act tough.
An ideological crackdown, tightened security, and firm responses to issues related to nationalism are used to extinguish threats.
David Kang, professor of international relations and business at the University of Southern California, said China’s recent actions were confusing.
“What I find most confusing about China’s recent behavior is that soothing statements made by political leaders are contradicted by actions almost at the same time,” he said.
“Either there is no longer a coherent Chinese strategy for the region, or else there is more domestic infighting going on that we do not see from the outside.”
Over the past weeks, China has traded barbs with Vietnam and the Philippines over territory disputes in the South China Sea, warning the United States to stay out of the territorial rows.
Tensions between Beijing and its neighbors over the disputed territory resurface every year around this time as the ASEAN Regional Forum takes place in July.
The ASEAN nations involved in the dispute, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei, have sought to resolve the situation multilaterally through the association.
Vietnam has encouraged the United States to play an active role in the disputes, but the U.S. has tried not to take sides.
Unlike the ASEAN nations, Beijing tries to resolve issues through bilateral negotiations.
At a briefing held last week, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said China had no intention of becoming involved in a military conflict with any country, including Vietnam, over territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
Ma Zhenggang, a former president of the China Institute for International Studies, claimed last Friday that the United States is attempting to internalize the disputes to step up its presence in Asia.
He said that the region’s rich reserves of oil and gas are the major reason for the escalation of tension in the South China Sea.
China opposes attempts to internationalize the territorial disputes as it could jeopardize stability in the region, said Ma.
Meanwhile, China has made South Korea uneasy after authorities there registered Arirang as an intangible cultural heritage.
Observers here speculated that this will eventually lead China to list the Korean folk song with UNESCO as a cultural heritage.
Professor Kang said, “After two decades of a foreign policy designed to reassure its neighbors that Chinese intentions were peaceful and cooperative, their recent behavior seems designed to show precisely the opposite.”
“Whether this is a result of poor calculations on China’s part or simply an incoherent foreign policy establishment isn’t clear at this point, but unless Beijing changes its behavior, it will most likely make countries in the region much more suspicious of its actions.”
Glaser said China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty is clearly a core interest. “The Chinese view themselves as responding to actions that they see as provocative by Vietnam and the Philippines, which are conducting surveys which those countries view as being in their EEZs.”