By Kim Young-jin
North Korea’s claim that South Korean officials proposed summit talks and “begged” for an apology for two deadly provocations at a secret meeting is unlikely to translate to a big shift in public opinion here over how to engage Pyongyang, analysts said.
Many observers suggested the move was a calculated effort to push domestic debate toward encouraging Seoul to return to an engagement policy. But analysts said any fallout from the incident appeared focused mostly on the Lee administration’s policy implementation, not overall inter-Korean relations.
“People are confused about what the Lee government is trying to do, over whether it is sticking to the principle of strategic patience or if it wants talks with North Korea,” Choi Jin-wook, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said. “Some may think the South made a mistake, but that’s not related to their attitude toward the North. Few would think that the North did something good here.”
The North’s latest rhetoric came in the run-up to the presidential election next year and as the main opposition Democratic Party harps at Lee to drop his hard-line policy.
“South Koreans are resilient to North Korean provocations and behavior,” Shin Chang-hoon, a researcher with the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said. “Most will think it is political propaganda ahead of the elections.”
Recent polls showed that most South Koreans want apologies from the North for its two provocations last year before talks resume. In the wake of the attacks that killed a total of 50, support for Lee’s hard-line policy rose.
Inter-Korean tensions have persisted since Lee entered office in 2008 with a hard-line stance on the North, drastically reducing the aid provided by previous administrations and tying its provision to denuclearization steps. His stick-heavy approach toward affecting fundamental change in Pyongyang’s behavior was a complete U-turn from the policy of previous liberal administrations, which offered massive, unconditional aid.
Seoul officials admitted that the secret meeting took place but said it aimed at seeking apologies from the North by offering the prospects of summit talks at a time when Pyongyang has been seeking outside food aid.
Regional players have agreed that the two Koreas should warm ties and hold bilateral denuclearization talks before any resumption of multilateral negotiations. Seoul has maintained it wants apologies and to see clear denuclearization steps before the talks resume.
Meanwhile, some citizens indicated they wouldn’t be swayed by any such tactics from the North.
“The Lee administration has claimed to adhere to a hawkish principle, and so it is a huge disappointment that in the background there were apparently contradictory actions. However, the give-and-take principle is still valid. We cannot keep on helping them unconditionally,” Lee Jin-pyuo, a college student, said.
Kim Eun-young, a 33-year-old NGO worker, said she already knew that the North’s behavior was unpredictable and so its rhetoric wouldn’t change her opinion.
“I personally believe that engagement would be a good first step. Perhaps this kind of strategy could make us think we need to engage. But if we do, we need to have a good strategy because past approaches have not resulted in fulfilled promises from Pyongyang.”
