The following is the 12th in a series of articles examining Seoul-Beijing ties in the wake of the tumultuous relationship between the two countries last year, sparked by the Cheonan incident. ― ED.
By Sunny Lee
BEIJING — Seoul is right in demanding Pyongyang apologize for the sinking of the Cheonan and expecting a more forthcoming Chinese attitude and cooperation on North Korea, but its strategy also needs to appreciate Beijing's almost obsession to maintain stability in the North, said a former European diplomat who was deeply involved in North Korean affairs.
“China’s reaction to the Cheonan incident showed that stability in North Korea is its paramount interest,” said Jonas Parello-Plesner, a former Danish foreign ministry official and now senior policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Parello-Plesner visited both Koreas, and gave a lecture on North Korea at a South Korean university. In Europe he is a regular commentator on developments in the North and its relationship with China, frequently appearing on European radio and TV.
“The Europeans grieved with the South Koreans. It was a huge loss of life in peacetime,” he said in an interview in Beijing, adding Europe paid keen attention to the matter as “South Korea is increasingly an important country for Europe both in trade, international development and G20 questions.”
In South Korea, marking the one-year anniversary of the tragedy, people are going through a very emotional period of remembering the fallen sailors. But their emotions are divided, as polls show 20 percent of South Koreans still doubt the findings of an international inquiry that concluded North Korea was the culprit for the sinking of the frigate that killed 46 sailors.
Looking at it from Europe, Parello-Plesner said he was not swayed at all in his belief that North Korea was responsible.
“South Korea is a democratic country with a lively debate on all issues, apparently, also on the cause of the Cheonan’s sinking. Actually, when I was a radio panel member discussing the incident, another panel member raised the issue. But the main news coverage in Europe was based on the international commission’s findings that indicated North Korea was the culprit,” he said.
In the wake of the Cheonan incident, China came under harsh criticism for its diplomatic “protection” of North Korea, going against the international community’s effort to mete out punitive measures against Pyongyang.
“China has made strategic calculations that it will continue to sustain the regime in Pyongyang. It seems unlikely that China is going to make drastic changes to that policy,” said Parello-Plesner, “particularly as China’s own leadership succession is approaching in 2012. China’s top leaders are not likely to change any policy toward North Korea radically before that.”
And that naturally poses a challenge for Seoul, which wants to garner support to work on Pyongyang’s uranium-based nuclear program, especially that of China.
This week in Beijing, South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan made little progress with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, on that key issue.
Parello-Plesner encouraged South Korea to find a “win-win” solution to the matter, by exploring what China wants to do with North Korea. “China would like to restart the six-party talks, which South Korea, Japan and the U.S. have rejected. A negotiation tactic could be for South Korea to discuss modalities with China on how to restart the talks based on a more forthcoming Chinese attitude on other issues relating to North Korea,” he said.
He believes that Seoul’s strategy on Pyongyang should also factor in the internal dynamics of North Korea. “North Korea is focused on regime survival, internal succession and showcasing special celebrations for the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung next year. It will be these internal dynamics that determine its relations with the outside world.
“South Korea is rightly focused on getting an apology for the sinking of the Cheonan from North Korea. But there might be ways to move more gradually into negotiations instead of an all-or-nothing approach so that both sides could save face.”
Looking back on the Cheonan incident and watching how different countries took different attitudes, some commentators pointed out the Cold War structure, which still remains on the Korean Peninsula. “It seems that the Cold War will linger on much longer in Northeast Asia, although it ended 21 years ago in Europe.”
Reunification of the two Koreas, some see, will be the ultimate solution to the inter-Korean conflict, dismantling the world’s last Cold War region. “A quick fix for reunification would be the regime collapse of North Korea. Yet you can’t really base a policy on that since it will exacerbate the North Korean feeling of being undermined as an independent country and North Korea has earlier managed to get through famines and hardship without collapsing. Practical cooperation and expanding trade relations could be a way of tying the two Koreas together while you wait for a long-term reunification solution,” Parello-Plesner said.