By Kim Young-jin
Concern mounted Thursday over North Korea’s reported development of a second launch facility, even as a Seoul official said Pyongyang has shown no signs of preparing a long-range missile test.
The remark came after Voice of America, citing satellite images, revealed that Pyongyang has almost completed a 100-foot-tall launch tower at a site in Dongchang-ri near the northwest border with China.
"There have been no signs," of preparations for a launch, the official said on condition of anonymity. "I don't think that there is a high chance of North Korea pushing ahead with a nuclear test or a missile launch at a time when it is asking for food aid."
The reports highlighted growing international concern over the North’s ongoing quest for intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability.
The communist nation is developing the Taepodong-2 missile, which would have an estimated range of 6,700 km, to couple its medium range arsenal capable of hitting targets within 3,000 km, which includes U.S. forces in Guam.
Tim Brown, an analyst with globalsecurity.org that has tracked the development, says the new site is far more sophisticated than the first one in Musadan-ri as it includes a rocket test stand, and missile assembly and test buildings, a launch bunker and an observation tower.
The North, which has not publically acknowledged the new site, has conducted long-range missile tests on three occasions, most recently in 2009, which drew international sanctions. It claimed the launches were aimed at sending a satellite into orbit.
The development of the site coincides with the acceleration of the succession process from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to his youngest son, Jong-un, whose image in the North has been tied to missiles and artillery.
On Wednesday, National Intelligence Director James Clapper expressed concern over the North’s growing ICBM capabilities during a Senate committee hearing.
His remarks echoed those of Pentagon chief Robert Gates who last month predicted Pyongyang would be capable of striking North America within five years.
Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst for the International Crisis Group, said the new site underscore the possibility of more tests.
“As they work on correcting past failures, there comes the time when they need to flight-test missiles,” he said. “If they can develop and deploy an ICBM capability as a reliable delivery system, it would have tremendous security implications for the region and the international community.”
He said if the North develops the capability to reach the United States, it could undermine Washington’s ability to protect its allies in the region. “Tokyo and Seoul might consider taking matters into their own hands by deploying their own countermeasures to the North Korean threat. In the worst case, this could include nuclear weapons,” he said, warning of the possibility of a regional arms race.
Global ramifications include the possibility of North Korea sharing the technology with countries such as Iran, Pinkston said. Pyongyang and Tehran are suspected of close cooperation on missile and nuclear programs.
The analyst noted that Pyongyang is likely to use the site, and the threat or execution of another launch, as a political tool internally and in its relations with regional players.
He said the successful development of an ICBM would help bolster Kim Jong-un as a powerful military leader capable of advancing the country’s prowess in science and technology.
A prospective missile launch would likely draw differing responses from members of the six-party denuclearization talks, possibly driving a wedge between the parties at a time when they appear to be closing gaps over how to deal with the North’s nuclear program.
Analysts say the North will maintain its efforts to resume the multilateral talks in a bid to secure badly-needed aid to bolster the succession process.
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