Winds of change in Arab world unlikely to affect N. Korea

By Kang Hyun-kyung

Observers here played down the possibility that the social media-driven winds of change currently sweeping the Arab world will affect North Korea, Monday.

They noted that access to information is critical for an eruption of protests against the government. Experts predicted that as the Stalinist state does not allow its people access to the Internet it’s unlikely that such revolutionary change will occur in the North.

Some North Korea watchers added there are no groups that could organize protests.

Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak is being pressed to resign after riots and revolt left 22 people dead in the town of Beni Sueif, south of Cairo, Saturday (local time). Since the beginning of the protests Tuesday, at least 102 people have reportedly been killed as tens of thousands have taken to the streets in Cairo, demanding Mubarak step down.

The Egyptian leader, who has been in power for nearly 30 years, is accused of grooming his son Gamal to succeed him.

The revolt in Egypt followed the ousting of Tunisia’s president and widespread protests in other Arab countries. In Yemen, thousands of people staged protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh who has been in power for more than three decades.

Robert Danin, a Council on Foreign Relations expert on the Middle East, said in a recent interview that while demonstrations in the past in the region have been against the United States, Britain and Israel, the current protests are “being fueled by and inspired by what is happening elsewhere in the region.”

“What we’re seeing that is new is that demonstrations are taking place in response to local conditions and problems that are then being fueled and inspired by what’s happening elsewhere in the region,” Danin was quoted as saying.

Social media-driven change?

The widespread protests in the Arab world have sparked speculation whether this type of protest could take place in North Korea where a dynastic leadership succession is underway.

Mason Richey, professor of political science at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, was skeptical about the chances for a social media-driven change to take place in the North.

“The events in Tunisia and Egypt probably will not have much effect on the political system and political stability in North Korea, largely because the access to information by the general public is far greater in Egypt and Tunisia than North Korea,” he told The Korea Times over the phone.

Professor Richey also pointed out the relatively poor overall conditions in North Korea are another setback.

“The objective conditions are much more difficult in North Korea than they were in Tunisia and Egypt.”

The political scientist added openness and being economically well-off tend to facilitate political change.

Bernhard Seliger, resident representative of Hanns Seidel Foundation Seoul office, agreed with Professor Richey.

“In the North, nobody can use Facebook or Twitter. They have no access to the Internet,” said Seliger. “In Tunisia and Egypt, everybody uses the Internet and Facebook. Basically, everybody in the countries can get all the information they need. But in the North, this is impossible.”

The German aid worker has visited Pyongyang and other large North Korean cities more than 50 times over the past decade. His latest visit to Pyongyang took place last week.

Pyongyang has a Twitter account (www. Uriminzokkiri.com), which has been in operation since August; but like most of North Korea’s seemingly civic activities, the micro-blogging site is the regime’s official propaganda tool.

Over the past 15 years after the food situation in the North deteriorated in the mid-1990s because of deadly floods and mismanagement of the economy, Seliger said some positive changes have occurred in the North.

“People are more independent from the government. Some use cell phones. I think this might have an impact on North Korea in the future.”

But he added the current level of openness in North Korea is not significant enough to prompt the people to stand up against the government.

People who have defected from the North were also skeptical about the possibility of any meaningful change in the state’s political system.

Kim Seong-min, representative of Free North Korea Radio, said only a few people, including those in the North’s army elite, are allowed access to the Internet.

“Once they become aware of unedited information from the outside world, North Koreans tend to change. But the problem is there are no civic groups or organizations that can organize protests or encourage dissidents to seek collective action against the regime,” the former North Korean military officer said.

Wind of change: 아랍권에서 부는 변화의 바람, 북한도 가능?

이집트에서 30년 장기집권을 한 무바라크 대통령에 반대하는 시민들의 항의가 계속되면서, 튀니지, 예멘, 알제리에 이어 이집트로 이어지는 변화의 바람에 전세계가 주목을 하는 가운데, 이런 혁명적인 변화가 북한에서도 가능한지를 점치는 사람들이 늘고 있다.

북한 사정에 익숙한 전문가들에 따르면 이같은 질문에 대한 답변은 “현재로서는 어렵다”는 것. 아랍권을 강타하는 반정부 시위가 트위터, 페이스북 등 소위 소셜미디어를 통해 촉발되었다는 점에 착안하여 이들 전문가들은 주민들의 인터넷 접근이 철저하게 차단된 북한에서 아랍권의 시위가 영향을 주는 것은 무리일 것이라고 진단한다.

아랍권에 부는 시위행렬에 대해 미국의 한 전문가는 “과거 아랍권에서 일어난 시위가 반미, 반이스라엘 이었던 점과 대조적으로, 현재 진행되는 시위는 자국의 집권세력에 공격의 초점이 맞춰졌다는 점”에서 혁명적인 변화라고 진단한다.