NK to step up power transfer, seek foreign aid

By Kim Young-jin

With only a year to go before North Korea has pledged to become a powerful nation, the communist regime in 2011 will undergo a significant power transfer and look to secure outside aid through multilateral talks, analysts say.

The outlook comes after a turbulent year that saw the North raise tensions with two deadly attacks against the South as well as the rise of Kim Jong-un, the youngest son of leader Kim Jong-il who earlier this year made his public debut as heir apparent.

Pyongyang’s moves, analysts say, will be efforts to inch towards its goal of emerging as a “strong and prosperous” country by 2012, the centennial of the birth of its founder, Kim Il-sung.

“Kim Jong-il will maintain control over foreign affairs and the nuclear program in 2011, but Kim Jong-un will become the center of power,” Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, told The Korea Times.

The junior Kim, thought to be no older than 28, stepped into the spotlight in September, when he was elevated to four-star general and vice chairman of the ruling party’s central military commission.

Experts say Jong-un’s steps resemble those of Kim Jong-il but that the process is moving far faster due to the reportedly flagging health of the “Dear Leader.”

This has sparked expectations that Jong-un, thought to be no older than 28, will soon be elevated to vice head of the powerful National Defense Commission.

“The promotion would poise him to take a high post in the party secretariat in 2012,” Park Young-ho, senior fellow at the government-affiliated Korea Institute of National Unification, said. “That would mean he would take the post of official successor over the power elite of the North Korean political system.”

Park said Kim could also take the reins of the (North) Korean People’s Army. Most anticipate him to garner additional posts while currying favor with the regime’s top brass, eventually wielding power equal to his father.

Cheong sees the possibility of a more rapid transfer, predicting the young heir may join the Politburo of the party’s central committee and become secretary of its organization bureau within 2011.

“Kim Jong-un will come to hold authority over most national affairs,” he said. “Complete succession is possible by next year.”

Prospects for dialogue

Inter-Korean relations hit their lowest point in decades on Nov. 23, when Pyongyang shelled South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island, killing four.

In the aftermath, China and Russia called for a resumption of the six-party talks on North Korea’s denuclearization to cool tensions. Seoul and its allies resisted, arguing this would be rewarding bad behavior.

But after a series of military exercises meant to deter future aggression, President Lee Myung-bak last week opened the door for the long-stalled talks, calling them the “best existing channel” to denuclearize the North.

Yoo Ho-yeol, an expert at Korea University, said that through the shelling, Pyongyang achieved its goal of proving Jong-un’s military ability to his internal audience ― and will now move to secure aid though the talks.

“They have no alternative at this point but to come back to the talks,” he said. “They need economic assistance from the United States and South Korea to prepare for the target year of 2012.”

In talks last month with U.S. troubleshooter Bill Richardson, Pyongyang reportedly agreed to allow U.N. inspectors back in its main Yongbyon plant.

Seoul and Washington responded coolly, the latter outlining five steps for the North to get back to multilateral talks such as ceasing provocation and warming inter-Korean ties.

The offer followed the disclosure of a sprawling uranium-enrichment program in the North that is feared able to be upgraded to produce nuclear weapons.

Diplomatic sources here have commented on the possibility of the North halting its plutonium-based program while the nuclear watchdog monitors the uranium-enrichment activities.

Park of the unification think tank believes the talks now hinge on whether China, the North’s main benefactor, can convince it to create a conducive environment in preparation for dialogue.

If so, the talks could resume sometime after the first quarter of the year, he predicted.

Provocation on the cards?

Still, many are pessimistic that the talks will lead to a denuclearized Korean peninsula, expecting the North to maintain its drive to be recognized as a nuclear power.

“They are willing to discuss the freezing of their nuclear program in exchange for large monetary payments,” Andrei Lankov, an expert at Kookmin University, said. “In other words, they will agree not to produce more nukes if the United States and other major players agree to pay them for this.”

If Washington and Seoul do not come back to the talks, analysts say more provocative behavior from the North could be around the corner.

A recent report released by the Institute for National Security Strategy, run by the National Intelligence Service, said the North will to strive to increase it asymmetric warfare capabilities and might attack vessels, frontline observation posts or even defectors living in the South.

A third nuclear test could also be in the cards, the report said.

“Their main motivation (in provoking) is rational and clear,” Lankov said. “They want to demonstrate that for Seoul it would be better to pay them than risk the consequences.”

Professor Yoo said that the regime could also attempt to drive a wedge into South Korean public opinion in the run up to the 2012 presidential polls by favoring opposition parties and inviting criticism of Lee’s Grand National Party.

Economy watch

Recent reports have revealed that the impoverished state has made moderate economic strides since 2000 mostly on the back of foreign aid. Economy experts say the opening of markets and increased cooperation with Beijing have also contributed.

They say that the regime, after cracking down on markets last year, has relented and now even allows factories to make goods to be sold internally.

This allows the companies to profit and then reinvest in raw materials from China, a cycle they say has a stimulating effect.

It is also widely speculated that the two sides have taken significant strides toward greater cooperation, especially in developing northeastern China as well as the Rajin Port in the North.

Still, with Seoul withholding almost all aid and cooperation with the North in the wake of the provocations, most say the economic prospects for 2011 remain dim.

Yoo said the North’s desire for prosperity may motivate warmer ties with the South in a bid to kick start economic cooperation projects halted by tensions.

“The North may try to get some hard currency by trying to resume the tourist business or extending economic exchanges with the South. Without this it will be very hard for them to advance their current economic situation,” he said.