By Kim Young-jin
Kim Jong-nam, the eldest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, apparently believes the Stalinist regime could collapse amid a power transfer to his younger brother, a South Korean official said Tuesday.
Lee Gi-taek, the head of Seoul’s National Unification Advisory Council, spoke with a close friend of the 38-year-old Kim during a recent trip to Macau, where Kim lives.
During a lecture in Berlin on North Korea policy, Lee said the friend had asked Kim whether he would visit the North to see his father whose health is reportedly flagging after suffering a stroke in 2008.
“Why should I go there? I’m not interested in the succession,” Lee quoted him as saying. “North Korea will collapse soon. How long can this regime last?”
The report follows a rare interview with Kim Jong-nam by Asahi TV earlier this month, when he said he was against the succession from his father to his younger brother, Jong-un, who is thought to be 27.
The report came as the North Korean regime is building a personality cult around the heir to prepare for his eventual succession.
Despite a power echelon reshuffle to place figures close to the Kim family around Jong-un, many analysts say the possibility of a power struggle still exists in the eventuality of the elder Kim’s death.
“If he doesn’t consolidate power, there could be a power struggle,” Lee quoted Jong-nam as saying. “And the leadership is aware of this.”
Reports, citing sources in the North, have said the regime has made moves such as launching a museum dedicated to Jong-un and mass distribution of his portrait to build a mythology behind him.
On Monday he appeared with his father at a rally in Pyongyang staged to celebrate the country's 60-year-old military alliance with China, state media reported.
According to the source in Macau, if the succession is carried out, Kim would like to see his brother reform the Stalinist state, the report said.
But experts doubt the chances of implementing reform by the prospective new leader, citing the need for Jong-un to appease elite military factions within the regime.
A former sushi chef to the Kim family Monday backed the view, telling reporters here, “Reforms and an open-door policy will be difficult,” according to the AFP.
Swiss-educated Jong-un was formalized as the successor last month when he was made a four-star general and given key party posts. He made his public debut at a massive military parade earlier this month.
Once thought to be favored to succeed his father, Kim Jong-nam reportedly fell out of the running in 2001 when he was caught using a fake passport to make an unauthorized visit to Disneyland in Tokyo.
He is the child of the elder Kim and his first wife, Sung Hae-rim. Jong-un is believed to have been born to Kim and his third wife, Ko Young-hee.
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