By Kim Young-jin
With the United States signaling that it may pursue fresh engagement with North Korea, an expert here says the overture could lead to dialogue between the two nations spurring a resumption of denuclearization-for-aid talks.
But Edward Reed, the Asia Foundation’s representative in Korea, also said the North still needs to prove its commitment to denuclearization before talks take place again.
“Washington is taking a close look at its North Korea policy to see if the situation is becoming more favorable to opening up dialogue,” he told The Korea Times. “It will be looking for possible reengagement as events develop over the next few months.”
If the conditions are right, he said, the United States could agree to bilateral contact as a prelude to a resumption of the six-party talks on Pyongyang’s denuclearization. The North angrily walked away from the table last year after being slapped with U.N. sanctions over its missile and nuclear tests.
The talks were thrown into further limbo in the aftermath of March 26, when a South Korean warship was sunk in waters near the inter-Korean maritime border. Seoul and Washington blame North Korea for sinking the Cheonan with a torpedo, killing 46 South Korean sailors, and have responded with further sanctions and joint military exercises.
The New York Times reported Friday that the Obama administration, after soliciting the opinions of experts and former officials, has apparently decided that such pressure alone will not be enough to change the behavior of Kim Jong-il’s regime.
The experts fear that continued tension could shut down future opportunities to engage the North, as the 68-year-old Kim attempts a tricky generational power handoff. Many analysts suspect Kim will name his youngest son, Jong-un, to a high government post at a rare party meeting expected in early September, cementing his role as the heir apparent.
According to Reed, dialogue will not come about without “a clear signal from North Korea that it is recommitting itself to denuclearization prior to returning to the talks,” he said.
Minimally, it would have to reaffirm or restate its commitment to the Sept. 19, 2005 joint statement of the six-party talks.
Reed said the U.S will be monitoring a range of situations over the coming months as it looks for a diplomatic breakthrough, not the least of which is the upcoming party meeting in the North.
“The meeting is an unusual event that Washington and others are tracking closely. If the succession issue is up in the air, it could be less likely to reengage,” he said.
It will also watch for movement on the Cheonan standoff as well as how much influence China is willing to wield to prevent further provocations. “If there is movement on these, I think we should be looking to get back to the talks,” Reed said.
He added that Washington will carefully gauge Seoul as it moves to reengage Pyongyang, conscious of “not getting out ahead of its close ally.”