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Drew Thompson
Director of China Studies at
Washington-based Nixon Center |
By Kang Hyun-kyung
Approximately 100 small Chinese companies out of 150 that have investments in North Korea are based in Jilin and Liaoning Provinces near the northeastern border with the North.
These investments constrain Beijing’s policy options toward the world’s most isolated nation, said a China watcher.
Drew Thompson, director of China Studies and Star Senior Fellow at the Nixon Center based in Washington D.C., predicted sanctions against the North would not only put Chinese investments at risk but also do a disservice to China’s plan to help North Korea open up and take advantage of its market.
“Chinese strategists have long hoped that economic reform within North Korea would moderate North Korean behavior, encouraging a transition from a militarized, planned society to something more closely resembling China’s own transformation,” he said in a paper entitled “Chinese Investors and North Korea’s Future” circulated to reporters, Friday.
“Such a successful transition would virtually guarantee North Korea’s long-term survival and bring stability to the region, which are two of China’s primary goals.”
North Korea is apparently not on the same page with China on the course of economic reform.
In a memoir entitled “It Was Fate” published posthumously, the late former President Roh Moo-hyun cautioned South Korean officials not to use such terms as economic reform or opening up the North Korean economy when having meetings with North Koreans.
Roh was one of the two South Korean Presidents, along with the late Kim Dae-jung, who sat down with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il for summit talks held in 2000 and 2007, respectively.
He met one-on-one with the North Korean leader on the second day after arriving in the North in October, 2007.
“Little progress has been made in the morning session as both Kim and I failed to discuss any items on the agenda in great detail,” Roh recalled.
“I sensed that the talks were stalled, probably because Kim felt intrusive when I mentioned economic reform or opening up the economy several times in our conversation in the morning.”
The former President said the talks went smoothly after he had expressed regrets over his “offense” use of those words later in a speech to a luncheon with South Korean delegates.
The North is aimed at achieving what they called “a strong and prosperous nation” by 2012.
North Korea watchers here say with this goal, the communist state plans to complete its nuclear weapons program and achieve a self-help economy.
They will want to complete the ongoing succession from incumbent Kim to his third son, Jong-un, by that year, they added.
The reality facing the North now, however, says that it has a long way to go to fix the economy.
Millions of North Koreans are reportedly starving due to the regime’s poor economic management.
Multi-layered sanctions have been imposed against the North for its nuclear program and illicit activities.
South Korea severed trade with the North in May after the latter was found to have torpedoed the warship Cheonan, which killed 46 sailors.
A new set of pressures are to come in late August as the United States is scheduled to unveil the list of North Korean individuals and businesses having been involved in proliferation.
These have led North Korea to be heavily dependent on China for trade.
It accounts for about 50 percent of all its foreign trade.
“With no other security allies, and no larger trading partner or investor, North Korea has little choice but to engage China,” Thompson said.
However, he added that North Korea has remained cautious about its deepening dependence on China.
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yistory@koreatimes.co.kr
