China will support Kim Jong-un, the youngest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, as he takes the helm of the Stalinist state, a researcher at the Sejong Institute in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province said Friday.
“China appears to have no alternative but endorse the lineal inheritance to maintain peace and stability in the region,” Paik Hak-soon, director of inter-Korean relations at the private-think tank, told The Korea Times.
China considers North Korea, its “blood ally,” as a strategic buffer zone in Northeast Asia.
Paik said Beijing is deeply concerned about the deteriorating health of Kim Jong-il, which will sooner or later result in a power vacuum in the impoverished yet nuclear-armed North, unless the power transfer is successfully completed.
He noted that China approved Kim Jong-il’s inheritance of power from his father, Kim Il-sung, in 1994, even though it viewed such power transfers as not ideal in the socialist model and believed it would trigger a backlash from the international community.
However, Paik said it is unlikely that the Chinese leadership will publicly discuss or announce the endorsement of the North’s father-to-son succession, fearing criticism for interfering in another country's domestic affairs.
Chon Hyun-joon, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, agrees with Paik regarding China’s stance on the succession.
“Not only to Kim Jong-il himself, but also the elite group close to him are frightened about his worsening health conditions,” he said in an article published in the August edition of Unification Era, published by the National Unification Advisory Council.
In the article, he claimed that the “fear factor” has given great momentum to the much-speculated power succession and this will likely help him be tapped as a senior secretary of the Central Party in September.
He also claims that China appears to have already endorsed Jong-un, who highly values his country’s ties with China, as the heir of North Korea.
Chon, however, said that South Korea should also be prepared for a scenario where Jong-un fails to succeed his father, given that he is still in his late 20s and lacks experiences.
The power succession has been the subject of media attention since Kim Jong-il reportedly suffered a stroke in the summer of 2008.
He still suffers from diabetes and high blood pressure and is believed to receive kidney dialysis once every two weeks.
Early this year, U.S. Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell predicted that Kim Jong-il may only have another three more years to live.
‘중국은 김정은 권력승계를 원해 ’
중국은 김정일의 막내 아들 김정은의 권력세습을 지지할 것이라 고 세종연구소 백학순 남북한관계연구실장이 금요일 코리아 타임스와의 인터뷰에서 말했다.
그는 김정일의 건강악화로 인해 동북아 지역에 평화와 안정을 위해서는 중국이 북한의 김정은으로의 세습을 인정하는 것 외에는 사실상 다른 대안이 없는 것 같다 주장했다.
이는 혈맹인 북한이 전략적 완충지대 역할을 하기 때문이다.
한편, 통일연구원 전현준 연구원도 북한이 후계작업 일정을 압축적으로 진행하는 이유는 중국이 세습을 인정했기 때문이라 민주평통이 발간하는 `통일시대' 8월호 기고문에 밝혔다.
그는 김정일 국방위원장의 건강 악화는 김 위원장 자신은 물론 주변 권력 엘리트들까지 불안하게 하고 있으며, 김 위원장 안위에 대한 불안감은 후계작업 일정을 `압축적으로' 하도록 강제하고 있다고 말했다.
전 연구원은 또한 9월 초 예정된 당대표자회에서 김정은이 당중앙위 조직비서가 될 가능성이 높다고 밝혔다.
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