Russia unlikely to back Cheonan findings

Professor Andrei Lankov

By Kim Young Jin
Staff reporter

As Seoul lobbies the international community to censure North Korea for its sinking of the warship Cheonan, attention now swings to whether Russia, a veto-wielding member of the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) with ties to Pyongyang, will back the effort.

Speculation is high as a team of Russian experts, sent to South Korea to review the findings of the multinational investigation into the incident, returned home Monday to report to Moscow, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

But regardless of what its experts determine, a prominent North Korea expert here expects Russia to avoid taking a firm stance on the findings, as it has too much to lose by supporting either side.

"I expect Russia to remain as neutral as possible," Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, told The Korea Times in a recent interview, explaining that supporting Seoul's conclusion could put its long-term regional interests at risk.

"At best, South Korea would say thank you," the Soviet-born scholar said. "And at the same time, it would destroy the small influence Moscow still has in North Korea."

That influence, analysts say, affords Russia a better position in pursuing its long-term policy objectives for the Korean Peninsula, which, like those of China, are focused heavily on maintaining the status quo for fear of instability on its border.

A serious sanction regime, Lankov pointed out, might lead to a crisis in the already-hobbled North.

Its ties with Pyongyang also place Russia as a key regional player ― after years of remaining on the outside looking in, Moscow played a clutch role in initially coaxing Pyongyang to the six-party talks on its denuclearization. Since then, it has been seen as an important mediator and go-between in Northeast Asia.

Still, Lankov believes that Moscow, which has recently warmed its foreign policy in a move to attract investment, is equally unlikely to openly criticize the findings of the multinational investigation into the ship sinking.

"That would spoil Moscow's relations with South Korea, without really increasing its influence in North Korea," he said, noting that both diplomatic and economic relations with the South would suffer as a result.

In the end, the scholar reckoned Russia will fashion a middle-of-the-road approach.

"It might have indeed been North Korea," he said, taking the voice of the Russian government. "But the evidence is not sufficient and so it is better not to jump to conclusions and drive tensions higher. Let's forget about this unfortunate incident as soon as possible."

Such a response, he stressed, would be "politically expected" and have "nothing to do with the real findings of the experts."

Despite this, Lankov, himself "95 percent" certain of the North's culpability, said inviting the Russian experts may prove valuable in the long run for the South.

"No matter what the government says officially, the experts will report their actual findings," he said. "If they find North Korea really was responsible, this will have an important impact on the Russian attitude toward Pyongyang in the long term."

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