By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff reporter
What will happen if South Korea, which believes North Korea was responsible for the sinking of the naval ship in March, takes the case to the U.N. Security Council?
Some experts, including security authority Baik Seung-joo, told The Korea Times that the North will feel mounting pressure and this may lead them to conduct a third nuclear test in the worst-case scenario.
``Nations usually conduct four or five tests to complete their nuclear weapons system,'' Baik, chief of the Center for Security and Strategy
at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said Tuesday.
``I think the North will keep this option open ― going for the third nuclear test ― as a possible scenario, if the South calls on the international community to take a commensurate action against the Stalinist nation.''
North Korea conducted underground nuclear tests in 2006 and in 2009.
Experts said the North committed the provocative acts in order to be recognized as a nuclear state.
However, South Korea and the United States have repeatedly made it clear they will not accept the North as a nuclear state.
Cheong Seong-chang, senior fellow of the Sejong Institute, presented four foreseeable scenarios, including the nuclear test.
``North Korea may ban the inter-Korean border-crossing as an immediate measure. Pyongyang can also consider its ships crossing the maritime borderline near the Northern Limit Line as an attempt to send the message that the two Koreas are technically at war,'' he said.
The remaining option is that the North may announce not to return to the six-party talks, Cheong predicted.
Professor Yoo Ho-yeol of Korea University, however, differed over the possible North Korea's reaction.
``North Korea knows that it's not easy for the South to find decisive evidence regarding who is responsible for the maritime disaster. China is backing the North,'' he said.
Having said that, the professor forecast that the communist state will not be convinced to opt for brinkmanship diplomacy.
Their comments came as a multinational investigation team is scheduled to announce what caused the sinking of the Cheonan Thursday, wrapping up weeks of investigating.
According to sources, the government is preparing for a report where it will clarify that North Korea's armed attack caused the naval vessel to sink into the West Sea which took the lives of 46 sailors.
They also said the government is considering several options, including taking the case to the UNSC.
Chances of the UNSC's action against the North are low, given that China, one of the permanent UNSC members, showed few signs of backing the South Korea-led measure.
Despite the skepticism of the viability of U.N.-led sanctions against the North, evidence showed that the clock is ticking for South Korea to move on.
The Ministry of Unification circulated a memo to 10 other ministries and government agencies involved in economic assistance programs for the North, requesting them to suspend those packages, except for humanitarian support for infants.
The move was construed as a precursor to South Korea's toughened measure against the North.
Cho Myung-chul, research fellow of the state-run Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, indicated South Korea's calling for the global action against the North may come at the cost of the closing down of the joint Gaeseong Industrial Complex.
``In the wake of the sinking of the naval ship, inter-Korean relations turned from bad to worse. The North took the consequence as worsening relations took a heavy toll on the impoverished economy as trade between the two Koreas decreased,'' he said.
``If South-North relations turn worse than now and if the North calculates it will not benefit from the joint economic program any more, the North will try to replace South Korea, probably with China, as a new trade partner."