By Na Jeong-ju
Staff Reporter
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's China visit has been long anticipated since his reclusive state withdrew from the six-nation denuclearization talks in April last year, in response to U.N. sanctions over its missile and nuclear tests.
Then why now? And what will be the topics of discussion at his private summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao, which is expected to take place today or tomorrow in Beijing?
The trip came at a sensitive time while South Korea is working together with the United States, Australia and Sweden to find the exact cause of the sinking of the Navy vessel Cheonan near the western inter-Korean sea border, which claimed the lives of 46 sailors.
As North Korea is the prime suspect in the biggest naval disaster during peacetime on the Korean Peninsula, the summit may focus on deterring South Korea's response to seek international retaliation ― militarily or diplomatically ― to the much-speculated act of aggression.
Last week, Chinese President Hu, at a summit with President Lee Myung-bak on the sidelines of the World Expo in Shanghai, expressed his deep condolences to South Korea for the death of the sailors.
"We hope the Shanghai meeting will lay the groundwork for cooperation between Seoul and Beijing on how to deal with the aftermath of the naval tragedy," Lee's top press officer, Lee Dong-kwan, told reporters after the summit.
Observers here say Seoul's intention to take the case to the United Nations will be the main issue of the envisioned summit between the leaders of North Korea and China, the staunch communist allies.
"What's drawing my attention is the timing of Kim's trip to China," said Yoo Ho-yeol, a political science professor at Korea University and a prominent North Korea expert.
"With its economy faltering and the international community gearing up efforts to revive the deadlocked nuclear talks, the Cheonan issue could deprive Pyongyang of chances of gaining assistance from the outside world and corner it further. That could be a big threat to the North Korea ruler, who is now seeking a smooth power transfer to his son."
At his summit with Hu, Kim may explain his position on the naval incident and appeal for China's cooperation in preventing it from becoming a topic at the U.N. Security Council, the professor said.
Some experts remark that the ship sinking could be a "perfect crime" as it is virtually impossible to uncover scientific evidence of North Korean involvement; and even if it is found, North Korea is likely to deny an attack.
Whatever the cause, however, South Korea, from a strategic point of view, is not playing a losing game.
"The Lee administration is already leading efforts to link the incident to the resumption of the nuclear talks, which North Korea sees as a source of cash and economic aid," another expert in Seoul said on condition of anonymity.
"Seoul will raise its voice in international talks dealing with North Korea based on its strong alliance with the United States. China could be a stumbling block, but it may have to consider its economic relations with South Korea at some point."
It is likely that Seoul will keep building economic ties with China as it is strategically more worthwhile in order to deal with North Korea and eventually the Pyongyang-Beijing political partnership will be put to the test, the source said.
President Lee raised the issue of a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) at his summit with Hu in Shanghai and sought his understanding that signing the FTA will be mutually beneficial to both nations.
"The nuclear talks and the Cheonan case will be high on the agenda at the meeting between Kim and Hu," said Yoon Deok-min of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. "While focusing on ways to consolidate ties with China, the North Korean leader may try to negotiate a huge aid package at the same time. By any account, Kim's visit at this time is not comfortable for China at all."
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