By Jane Han
Korea Times Correspondent

NEW YORK - Warren Buffett said last week that the U.S. housing market will bounce back next year, but the truth is, even before the billionaire's forecast, Korean investors have already begun pinpointing where to buy.

"People are fast," says Choi Yong-il, manager at New Star Realty, a California-based real estate consultancy. "We're already seeing increased activity among keen investors who aren't afraid to be the first to move."

He said that today's "three top conditions" - large supply, cheap prices and low interest rates - are giving buyers enough reason and confidence to take action before prices start crawling back up.

Experts widely forecast that home values will continue to drop further, but there is growing sentiment that the bottom is getting closer - and Buffett's recent foresight adds to that confidence.

He wrote in his annual letter to shareholders of his Berkshire Hathaway, "Within a year or so, residential housing problems should largely be behind us. Prices will remain far below 'bubble' levels, of course, but for every seller or lender hurt by this, there will be a buyer who benefits."

The average family home in the U.S. cost $164,700 in January, based on the National Association of Realtors. Prices are currently at summer 2003 levels, according to the closely-watched Case-Shiller index.

Some properties have lost as much as 70 percent of their value when prices peaked in 2006, experts say.

"It's extremely rare to see prices go down this much," says Kelly Choi, a Miami-based realtor, who bet that the downward spiral will last longer.

But for how long? No one has the exact answer.

Despite the still-lingering uncertainties, Korean investors seem to be moving forward.

"We're getting a lot more inquiries now than last year, especially since the Korean won is gaining value," says Lee Seung-cheol, a property consultant at Map Realty, a Seoul-based firm that provides overseas investment services.

The company recently resumed its investment strategy seminars on an uptick in demand for guidance.

November government data shows that Koreans' real estate purchases abroad has jumped by more than five-fold compared to the same month in 2008, a clear sign that people are setting their sights overseas.

Lee says U.S. and Canada are the most popular countries of interest among prospective investors because people feel most familiar with those regions.

California, New York and Florida have traditionally been most sought after, and they still are. But buyers are looking for a much thinner price tag than before.

Choi, the California agent, says properties ranging from $200,000 to $300,000, which used to cost $400,000 to $500,000, are getting the most viewings since investors are skittish to shell out large sums of money just yet.

Although homebuyers are starting to return to the U.S. market, experts warn that the recovery is still too fragile to aggressively jump in.

"Many real estate fundamentals in the U.S. remain weak at this point so investors must be wary about everything to avoid buying into a mess," said Kim Jung-yeon, investment manager at Daol Fund.

jhan@koreatimes.co.kr



미국 주택 시장을 노려라

워렌 버핏은 이달 초 미국 주택 시장이 내년 반등할 것으로 예상했었다. 하지만 한국 투자자들은 버핏의 전망 이전부터 벌써 어디에 투자할지 모색하고 있었던 것으로 전해진다.

캘리포니아에 기반을 둔 부동산 컨설턴트 회사인 뉴스타 부동산 매니저인 최영일 씨는 "사람들의 움직임은 매우 빠르다. 벌써 재빠른 투자자들의 움직임이 눈에 띄게 증가했다"고 말했다.

그는 "높은 공급량, 싼 가격, 저금리라는 최상의 세가지 조건이 가격이 다시 치솟기 전에 투자하려는 투자자들에게 힘을 실어 주고 있다"고 분석했다.

전문가들은 미국의 주택 가격이 계속 더 떨어질 것으로 보지만 거의 그 끝이 보인다는 전망도 점차 힘을 얻고 있다. 여기에 최근 버핏의 전망이 가세해 미국 주택시장에 대한 관심이 더욱 높아지고 있다.