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Korea Times Correspondent
BEIJING ― A phone call was made to the North Korean embassy in Beijing on Tuesday night and the following conversation was logged.
A: Hello. I am a journalist from the South.
B: Yes?
A: Lately many newspapers have been reporting about a possible visit by Chairman Kim to China. I thought I should confirm it with the North Korean embassy here.
B: We also don't know about it.
A: There is no such visit planned soon?
B: I don't know. Who would know about a thing like that? Which newspapers wrote that?
A: (Naming some newspapers.)
B: People may be curious, but such reports have been coming out since four years ago.
The North Korean official, who declined to give his name, was right. The last time Kim Jong-il visited China was in 2006. Since then, there has been an endless stream of reports about an "imminent" visit by Kim to China, which to this day has yet to materialize.
Anticipation, however, has not let up lately. Rather, it has intensified as observers say Kim has enough agenda items that he would want to discuss with the Chinese President Hu Jintao, such as seeking economic aid, gaining China's support for Kim's heir designate and consultations on the six-party nuclear talks.
In addition, after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Pyongyang last October, Hu publicly invited Kim to visit at a time "convenient" for him.
"So, it's very normal for the North Korean leader to visit China," said Cui Zhiying, director of the Korean Peninsula Research Centre at Shanghai's Tongji University. "But I don't know when."
"It will definitely be sometime during the first half of this year," said a South Korean government official who deals with North Korean affairs. He spoke anonymously due to protocol.
Yet Wang Jisi, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, gave a more reserved perspective of Kim's visit: "I am not aware of it," he said over the phone. Wang declined to speculate whether there was a high chance that Kim's visit would happen during the first half of the year.
The unfulfilled expectation of Kim's visit has been drawn out since December when the prediction was spearheaded by Japanese and South Korean media outlets.
Most were speculative, but some were bold. For example, Radio Free Asia said Kim would arrive in Beijing on Jan. 10. When the date passed by without Kim's appearance in China's capital, a series of other speculative reports ensued, each, after passing the deadline, incrementally postponing the time.
Lately, Japan's Mainichi newspaper and South Korea's Yonhap news agency have said Kim is likely to visit China in the latter half of this month ― that is ― now, while the JoongAng Ilbo predicted it to be in early April.
Those who weigh in on this latest revised timetable argue that chances are higher this time.
Firstly, Wang Jiarui, the head of the international department of the Communist Party of China, doesn't have any foreign travel scheduled for the remaining days of the month. Within the Chinese government, the department manages Kim's visit.
Secondly, Grand National Party Chairman Chung Mong-jun's plan to visit China later this month was postponed at the request of the Chinese side, citing a schedule conflict with another state guest. Some speculate this guest is Kim.
Thirdly, some view that the U.S. Barack Obama administration wants to make progress with the stalled North Korean nuclear talks before it hosts the global nuclear summit on April 12. Many observers link the timing of Kim's visit to China to that of the North's declaration of returning to the talks.
According to this view, the U.S. will make concessions to North Korea to encourage it to return to the talks. After obtaining Washington's concession, the North Korean leader will visit China to make a grand declaration of returning to the six-party talks. The diplomatic gesture will be appreciated by China, the host of the talks, which wants to boost its international image as an international dispute balancer.
Unfortunately, all these speculations will not hold ground if Kim doesn't visit China this time.
Han Suk-hee, an expert on Chinese-North Korean relations at the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University, is one of those leaning towards this view.
"The situation remains fluid. But I don't think it's good timing for him to make the trip," Han said, citing Kim's health condition as one reason. Kim reportedly suffered a stroke in 2008. He has since recovered, yet remains fragile, observers say.
"Many people also think that Kim will make a visit to China as a diplomatic courtesy returning Wen Jiabao's visit to North Korea last year. But given that North Korea appears not to be interested in returning to the six-party talks, there is now a lack of agenda that enables Kim's visit," Han said.
Han also cited the current signs of instability in North Korea, following its botched currency reform that has aggravated the people's economic hardship amid exorbitant price hikes.
The situation was so severe that Pyongyang executed a top financial official in a desperate attempt to quell public anger.
At the ruling-class level, the North's leadership lately has also displayed signs of disorderliness and inconsistency in its dealings with the South, leading some analysts to doubt the ailing leader's grip on power.
With North Korea facing domestic instability, Han doubts North Korea can afford to stage Kim Jong-il's visit to China.
"For North Korea, Kim's overseas travel is a major diplomatic event. I don't think the domestic situation is favorable for Kim to make the move now."
sunny.lee@koreatimes.co.kr
