By Kim Sue-young
Staff Reporter
The United States appears to be unprepared for a possible power vacuum after North Korean leader Kim Jong-il dies, a professor said in his contributions to Foreign Policy Magazine.
Lee Sung-yoon, who teaches at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, said a continued U.S. commitment is necessary to ensure stability on the Korean Peninsula.
"It's true that U.S. and South Korean officials have been quietly discussing a contingency plan for a drastic change in North Korea, dubbed OPLAN-5029 by the Pentagon," he said.
But beyond short-term emergency response measures such as securing the North's stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction and maintaining public safety, controlling borders is critical to protecting U.S. strategic interests in that vital region of the world, he said.
Given America's political, economic and human investment in the two Koreas over the past 65 years, he said it was also a "moral imperative."
The North Korean leader is reported to have been in bad health since he allegedly collapsed due to a stroke in 2008.
Some North Korea watchers said that it would be possible to witness a sudden change in the leadership of the reclusive regime or a father-to-son succession as Kim weakens.
Professor Lee viewed that it will take decades and require the sustained help of various international organizations and financial institutions to reorient North Korean society.
"That means U.S. commitment to South Korea and U.S. leadership in maintaining stability in the region be continued, even in the face of mounting domestic and international pressure to withdraw or re-deploy U.S. troops," he said.
Lee said only a continued U.S. commitment to maintain peace in a unified Korea can ensure stability in the region.
"The country's dire economic conditions, coupled with the inherent political risks of a second communist hereditary succession and the ever-looming alternative in neighboring South Korea, makes Pyongyang an exceptionally well-qualified candidate for regime collapse," he said. "It's time to start thinking about the unthinkable."