By Jung Sung-ki
Staff Reporter
A U.S. scholar said Tuesday that North Korea could produce up to 14 to 18 nuclear warheads by 2019 if multilateral talks on its denuclearization fail.
In a report, titled "Four Scenarios for a Nuclear North Korea," Joel Wit, a visiting fellow at the U.S. Korea Institute at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, said that North Korea's "current nuclear stockpile is believed to consist of sufficient plutonium to build four to eight weapons."
"By using existing stocks of fresh fuel, North Korea could produce a bomb's worth of plutonium each year from 2011 to 2013," he was quoted as saying by Yonhap News Agency.
Wit continued: "If North Korea is able to refurbish its fuel fabrication plant, that production rate could continue indefinitely with its arsenal reaching 14 to 18 weapons by 2019."
North Korea reportedly possesses several nuclear warheads, with some analysts saying it has already developed the technology to mount them on long-range missiles.
The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) reported in December that the North's military could accelerate efforts to deploy a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and mass produce warheads.
The report said Pyongyang would likely conduct a third nuclear test this year in an effort to be recognized by the international community as a nuclear state.
"Compared to the first test held in October 2006, the second (conducted on May 25, 2008) was evaluated to yield 4 kilotons of explosive power, five times more than the first one," it said. "This means North Korea has secured a substantial capability to make nuclear weapons."
Pyongyang has recently said it is ready to rejoin the six-party talks, which it has boycotted since early last year over U.N. sanctions for its missile and nuclear tests.
Its chief nuclear envoy, Kim Kye-gwan, will visit the United States next month as a follow-up to a trip to North Korea by Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. special representative for North Korea policy, in December to discuss the resumption of the six-party talks.
gallantjung@koreatimes.co.kr
