By Sunny Lee
Korea Times Correspondent
BEIJING ― Former Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok once said any scholarly study of North Korea includes the study of the China-North Korea relationship, underscoring the role China plays in North Korean issues.
China's economic leverage on North Korea is well known. When China replaced the U.S. in 2003 to become the largest export destination for South Korea, the Middle Kingdom's sphere of influence expanded to the entire peninsula, starting to remind Koreans of the old historical burden. Korea used to be China's vassal state.
But in what way will it manifest itself today? Will economic interdependence automatically deepen political leverage?
While a raft of Korean scholars devote themselves to that very question, Scott Snyder's new book, ``China's Rise and the Two Koreas,'' is more than a welcome addition.
This book, first circulated by word of mouth among journalists who cover North Korea, comes as essential reading for those who are also interested in other related key topics: How much influence does China have over North Korea? Who will be critical in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue? The Americans? The Chinese? What is the chance of China using military force in the case of upheaval in North Korea?
Snyder said he first got the idea for his book when he attended a security conference in 1998 in which a South Korean participant asserted that if South Korea were to develop a stronger economic and trade relationship with China than with the United States, there would be spillover effects on South Korea's political relations with the United States that could ― possibly ― lead to the end of the U.S.-South Korean alliance.
Ten years later, Snyder concludes; ``The rapid growth in Sino-South Korean economic relations has not yet directly threatened the U.S. position, but it has served to create ambivalence in South Korea about how best to ensure its own security needs while taking advantage of new economic opportunities with China.''
Snyder observed that South Korea embraced China as an opportunity to exploit, but then the usual Western ``China threat'' was strangely quiet in South Korea, for which China has become the largest export destination.
But then, as South Korea's economic dependence on China increased, Seoul also started to fear being overly dependent on China. Since the Lee Myung-bak administration took over Cheong Wa Dae, Seoul's leaning toward Washington has appeared clearer. China immediately countered by symbolically upgrading its diplomatic relations with South Korea.
So, although mutual expectations of economic gains led to the Sino-South Korea diplomatic relationship, so far, the bilateral relationship appears not to square with the prevalent theory of ``trade follows the flag.''
Snyder also notices that one of the critical areas of conflict between China and South Korea is their different stances on the North Korean refugee issue. China's repatriation policy _ sending North Korean refugees back to the Stalinist nation ― in particular has been widely condemned by South Koreans, hurting China's overall image here.
This book thoughtfully and meticulously engages with this and many other key issues, including the nuclear crisis, the Goguryo dispute, China-South Korea free trade, and Hyundai Motor's operations in Beijing. It is also interesting to read of the widely publicized Ssangyong dispute, about a Korean auto company owned by China, from an American scholar's perspective.
This well-researched book, covering an array of important topics surrounding the Korean peninsula, boldly attempts to be comprehensive at a mere 240-pages. Surprisingly, it manages to do it. That's another feat.
China's Rise and the Two Koreas, just published, deserves a special place in the strategic thinking of South Korea for hedging the delicate diplomatic choreography between the two superpowers of China and America.