By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
 North Korea is becoming ever more reliant on China after playing a high-stakes poker game this year with a second nuclear test and launching missiles despite repeated warnings from the international community.
China watchers say Pyongyang's ever-growing dependency on Beijing is a combined result of the latter's strategic regional development plan in its three northeastern provinces near the border ― Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang ― and the North's brinkmanship diplomacy.
North Korea's bilateral trade with China accounted for approximately 50 percent of its entire trade with foreign nations in 2008.
About 76 percent of bilateral trade took place in the three impoverished provinces near the border where about two million ethnic Koreans reside. In the city of Yanbian in Jilin Province, the Korean language is widely used.
On China's side, experts say, the best case scenario for the Korean Peninsula is nuclear-free and peaceful co-existence of the two Koreas and that therefore, China is expected to take measures to achieve this goal for the peninsula.
Chinese policymakers have sought for a win-win scenario where they can keep their national interests intact, while convincing the North that it would be better off if giving up its nuclear program.
In a phone interview with The Korea Times, Choi Seong-keun, a senior researcher at the Hyundai Research Institute, pointed out that China and North Korea have reaped joint gains in trade promotion in the three provinces.
Since President Hu Jintao took office in 2003, China has placed a priority on developing the three impoverished provinces with a goal to make it a gateway to Northeast Asia.
In October, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao promised that China would sponsor a new bridge project on the Yalu River that will connect North Korea to China, if completed.
Choi considered the bridge project and trade expansion between the two sides signals that the opening up of the North Korean economy may be imminent.
N. Korea Weary of China's Influence
Despite the deepening bilateral economic ties, it would be a misunderstanding to take the North's ever-growing economic dependency on China as evidence that the two sides feel strongly about each other.
The truth is that North Koreans are weary of China's ever-growing influence at home, according to several experts The Korea Times contacted.
This atmosphere was evident when ranking North Korean officials visited Seoul in late August.
Of the six envoys who came to Seoul for the funeral of the late President Kim Dae-jung, three, including chief delegate Kim Ki-nam, met with President Lee Myung-bak.
In the closed door meeting, a think tank expert said, one of the North Koreans told Lee that the North was willing for its southern neighbor to exploit the North's rich natural resources so that both sides can become better off.
Choi said that Lee's response to the offer was unknown, but the North Koreans indirectly expressed their concern over China's growing influence in the hermetic country.
Bernhard Seliger, resident representative of Hanns Seidel Foundation Seoul Office said, "There is no open criticism of China in the North, but North Koreans are weary of them and some are disgusted with the way the Chinese make money there.''
``From my observations on North Korea and conversations with North Koreans, there is a great deal of ambiguity about Chinese goods and their influence in the North. They stressed several times that Japanese bicycles and food were better than Chinese ones.''
Drew Thompson, director of China Studies and senior fellow at the Washington-based Nixon Center, said the North Koreans were uncertain about China's commitment to their security.
Drain of Mineral Resources
Since 2002, trade between China and North Korea has gradually grown and it stood at 49.5 percent of the North's entire trade with foreign nations in 2008. North Korea's imports from China are three times more than its exports to the neighboring state.
The figure in bilateral trade between China and North Korea is striking, given that China, along with South Korea and Japan, was one of three core trade partners for North Korea back in 2000.
``There is a clear pattern in the North's trade with China. North Korea's reliance on China became heavier when South Korea halted economic assistance to the North,'' said Choi.
Another striking characteristic of the boosted bilateral trade relations is that a considerable amount of North Korea's mineral resources were shipped to China ― they took up 41.3 percent of exports in 2008.
``International sanctions against the North after it tested nuclear bombs and test-fired several missiles tied the North's hands on earning cash abroad. And this facilitated North Korea's shipping of more mineral resources to China to make money,'' said Choi.
China's Motive
In the National Assembly, quite a few lawmakers, including Rep. Song Young-sun of the minor Pro-Park Geun-hye Coalition, expressed worries over draining North Korea's mineral resources, and proposed a two-track policy.
Song and her fellow legislators urged the Ministry of Unification to consider changing the course of its hard-line North Korea policy in order to find room for inter-Korean cooperation in mineral resources and to chart a strategy to deal with China's ambition on the peninsula.
Since President Lee took office in February last year, Seoul has halted rice shipment to North Korea and inter-Korean economic cooperation, linking economic assistance to the North's efforts for denuclearization.
Lee has stood firm on the conditional engagement policy.
Rep. Song speculated that the North Korean economy's ever-growing dependency on China will end up with the latter having a large influence on the peninsula if the two Koreas unify.
Her observation drew little support.
Drew Thompson said in an email interview with The Korea Times that China didn't want North Korea to fail.
``China's provision of economic and humanitarian assistance and the promotion of trade is part of a strategy to not only ensure the continued survival of North Korea as a sovereign state, but also to encourage reform and the opening up of the North's economy,'' he observed.
``It is hoped that a reform and opening movement in the North will create a more stable country with more moderate policies, with the expectation that they will no longer engage in provocative behaviors and otherwise threaten regional security.''
Selig shared the view with Thompson, saying China likes dealing with two Koreas instead of a unified country.
``But China would prefer a more rational regime in the North, like a military junta, compared to the current situation as the incumbent regime is a difficult ally,'' the German economist said.
Wind of Change?
A question remains unanswered ― Why should South Korean policymakers be concerned over North Korea's growing dependency on China?
Choi of the Hyundai Research Institute observed that the ``heterogeneous economic infrastructure as a consequence of the North's trade expansion with China'' will pose a threat to South Korea if the two Koreas are unified in the future.
``If the current trend continues and as a result North Korea becomes more and more reliant on China, South Korea will have a lot of work to do when trying to deepen economic integration with the North in the future,'' he said.
Choi called on policymakers to consider shifting North Korean policy, predicting that a wind of change may come in the North in the near future near the border dividing China and North Korea.
``The two sides have joint gains there. The three northeastern provinces on the China's side are the less developed areas and Chinese leadership has been trying to revitalize the region since 2003.''
He pointed to the new Yalu River bridge project that will link China and North Korea, saying the bridge, if completed, will make it easier for China to transport mineral resources.
Witnessing the bilateral trade expansion, a growing number of North Korea experts in Seoul cast doubt on President Lee's hard-line policy.
They expressed concern about the consequence of South Korea's policy on North Korea at a time when China and the United States are getting closer to the communist state.
hkang@koreatimes.co.kr
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