By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter

China walked a fine line between North Korea's nuclear ambition and bilateral relations in the wake of the North's provocative acts this year, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG) report.

The report titled "Shades of Red: China's Debate over North Korea" said that after North Korea test-fired missiles, conducted a second nuclear test and withdrew from the six-party talks, China separated the North Korean nuclear issue from bilateral relations with its ally in order to keep its economic and security interests safe.

For China, its hands are tied when it comes to the North's nuclear ambition, indicated the report.

Chinese policymakers have reached the conclusion that they cannot make a huge difference in dismantling the North's nuclear facilities, admitting that the situation is primarily in the hands of policymakers in Washington and Pyongyang.

They came to the conclusion after discussing the consequences of their previous attempt to dissuade the North from its nuclear program in 2006 in the aftermath of its first underground nuclear test, which bore no fruit and only agitated the ally, dealing a blow to Sino-North Korea relations.


Two Schools of Thought

The North test-fired a missile on April 5, the first time after U.S. President Barack Obama took office, and several more in the following months, before finally conducting a second nuclear test on May 25.

North Korea watchers said the North had been trying to get the international community to accept it as a nuclear power and the series of provocations pertained to its internal power succession.

Despite the North's perceived intentions, the provocative acts drew international condemnations and only encouraged the international community to act against the secretive state.

Upon receiving solid support from the North's traditional allies, China and Russia, the United Nations came up with a non-binding resolution, followed by sanctions against the North.

Angry at the international responses, North Korea, which was dismayed at the condemnations from China and Russia, announced it was permanently withdrawing from the six-party talks.

The ICG said the North's bellicose acts disturbed its patron China deeply and Chinese policymakers have been reassessing their North Korea strategy since then.

According to the report, two schools of thought -- namely liberal strategists who are American-educated scholars and conservative traditionalists who are mostly former diplomats -- recommended very different policy responses to North Korea.

Strategists described the North's provocations as a "slap in the face of China" and called on the Chinese government to come up with a tougher and firmer stance toward North Korea.

They also urged policymakers to work closely with the United States on a coordinated and tougher position.

Meanwhile, conservative traditionalists, who remain deeply mistrustful of the West, underlined the special relationship between China and North Korea as close as "lips and teeth," and which was "built on fire and the blood of hundreds of Chinese soldiers."

These conservatives warned that China would suffer if it joined a campaign to create a hostile environment with its traditional ally, which is already impoverished and whose substantial population is starving.

The mounting pressure would only prompt the desperate North to resort to more drastic provocations, they said.

China, which shares a border with the North, would lose out, if this happens.


From 'Lips and Teeth' to Bilateral Relations

Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's visit to North Korea on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations on Oct. 4 sent a signal that conservatives had had their voices heard, indicating that there had been no major policy shift toward North Korea.

Wen offered a high-priced gift set to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il during the visit -- an economic cooperation package worth more than $200 million, which included a bridge project on the Yalu River.

Local North Korea watchers said Kim's indication that his country may consider returning to the six-party talks was in return for China's generous offer.

Citing Chinese officials, the report pointed out that the nature of Sino-North Korea relations appear to be moving toward stable bilateral ones.


N. Korea Unwilling to Discuss Nukes With Others

The report acknowledged that China had learned from its previous efforts in 2006 where it merged bilateral relationship with nuclear issues: The effort ended up "poisoning the bilateral relationship."

"Beijing now perceives the nuclear issue as a separate and long-term endeavor for which the United States is primarily responsible," the report said.

"This approach, reinforced by the visit of former U.S. President Bill Clinton to North Korea and the release of the two U.S. journalists, who had been imprisoned in North Korea since March, allows China to continue to pursue a strengthened relationship with North Korea, while waiting for any progress on the nuclear issue that might result from U.S.-North Korea bilateral talks."

Similar Frustration Comes Here in South Korea.

North Korea has pursued direct talks with the United States for the settlement of its nuclear program and made it a rule to separate the nuclear issue from economic and humanitarian assistance in inter-Korean talks.

North Korea was open to discussing economic assistance programs with South Korea but showed no signs of bringing the nuclear issue to the negotiation table.

The North's tactic of separating nuclear issues from economic assistance was probably related to China's diminished role in convincing the North to disable its nuclear arsenals.

President Lee Myung-bak, who has called on the North to discuss the nuclear issue with the South on several occasions, unveiled the so-called "Grand Bargain" approach, a one-shot deal aimed at dismantling the North's nuclear program with comprehensive economic and security measures in return for the North's commitment.

Some North Korea watchers here were skeptical about the effectiveness of the initiative as they speculated that the North would not change its stance of dealing only with the United States regarding the nuclear issue.

hkang@koreatimes.co.kr