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Korea Times Correspondent
BEIJING ― China doesn't have a contingency plan to enter North Korea in case there is sudden turmoil, because the superpower will continue to provide aid to the impoverished country and keep it from imploding, making the need for such a plan unwarranted from the beginning, a South Korean scholar has claimed.
``There are many pending issues that define the North Korea-China relationship. But the key question that ultimately reveals China's strategy for North Korea is its contingency plan. If you are clear about it, other questions are all just commentaries," said Han Suk-hee, a Yonsei University expert on the China-North Korea relationship.
China has on numerous occasions brushed aside the outside suspicion that it has a contingency plan of sending troops into North Korea in case the latter collapses because of a malfunctioning economy or internal turmoil caused by a power struggle in the aftermath of Kim Jong-il's death.
Here, the common view states that Beijing would want to have a contingency plan because it fears the collapse of its neighbor that would result in a deluge of North Korean refugees fleeing the starving nation to China's northeast ― which borders North Korea ― destabilizing the region.
Beijing also worries that the reunified Korea that will form after the collapse of North Korea may become more nationalistic and reclaim the northeastern Yanbian Korean Autonomous region where there are 2 million ethnic Koreans with Chinese citizenship.
Understandably, when a contingency happens in North Korea, the country that suffers the most is North Korea, followed by China.
``So, these two countries share a strong degree of common ground to prevent the contingency from materializing," said Han.
One way China has been helping North Korea in this regard is economic assistance. Han said China's economic support for North Korea has recently undergone some change.
``In the past, they were providing free economic aid. But these days, China is keener to have Chinese firms invest in North Korea." On the North Korean side, he said, it reportedly abolished residence restrictions for Chinese businessmen. All this indicates that China and North Korea are preparing for a ``long-term" future.
Meanwhile, analysts believe the single most important factor that would require any contingency operation in North Korea is the death of Kim Jong-il. Given that North Korea is run like a monarchy, some predict that there will be bloodshed among the three princes in their jockeying for the crown when the king is no longer present.
Han dismisses this view. He believes that North Korea has been preparing for this obvious contingency well in advance, and China, which has been carefully monitoring the internal situation in North Korea, also feels confident that there will be ``orderly regime maintenance" even after Kim's death.
``Furthermore, Kim's death is not an overnight event, but is something that the rest of the world, including China, has been closely monitoring and following up. And when the outside world talks about contingency, and that has been for more than 10 years, it's commonsense to expect that there is movement inside to prevent such a contingency from happening," he said.
Like other analysts, Han believes that China's posture on North Korea is complex and contradictory. ``As China is integrating into international society and projecting the image of a responsible state holder, it knows that supporting a regime like North Korea doesn't make sense in many ways. It doesn't go well with the positive image that China wants to show to the world. So, it didn't have a choice but to support the U.N. resolution to punish North Korea. But then, it doesn't want to see North Korea collapse either. So, it has two conflicting attitudes on North Korea."
Although China gestured by joining the United Nations to sanction North Korea, and there have even been news reports that China was ``enraged" by Pyongyang's second nuclear test, says Han, China ultimately cannot afford to let go of North Korea.
sunny.lee@koreatimes.co.kr
