By Do Je-hae
Staff Reporter
The advancement of global warming may result in a "subtropical" Korean Peninsula, making the country winterless by the end of the century and more susceptible to super hurricanes.
A state weather agency projected Sunday that "most of South Korea may be categorized as a subtropical region, with partial exceptions in some of the inland mountainous areas between 2071 and 2100."
"This would mean that most of our major cities, including Seoul, Suwon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu and Ulsan, will no longer be subject to sub-zero temperatures by the end of the 21st century," said Park Gwan-young, head of the Climate Change Information Center (CCIC).
Park is to present the findings at an environment forum in South Chungcheong Province on Sept. 8, organized by the Korea Meteorological Administration.
Park based his research on Korea's temperature changes from 1971 to 2000. It reveals that some parts of the southern Jeolla region from Mopo to the eastern metropolis of Busan are already showing subtropical tendencies.
The CCIC also projected that Korea will continue to see extended summers and shorter winters.
"Since the 1990s, our winters have become shorter by one month compared to the 1920s. But our summers are longer by 20 days and spring blossoms are occurring earlier," Park said.
By the end of the century, the Korean Peninsula will have experienced more scorching summers, but less severe winters. The northern part of the peninsula will have a greater increase in precipitation than the southern region, the CCIC official added.
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently estimated that the world's average temperature will increase by 6.4 degrees Celsius by 2090, lifting sea levels by 59 centimeters.
Also expected from an advancement of tropical weather are the frequent super hurricanes, equaling the devastating 2005 Katrina that claimed more than 1,600 lives in New Orleans.
Such possibilities are based on an increase of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in ocean temperatures witnessed around Korean shores in the last few decades.
"The deciding factor in the magnitude of a hurricane is ocean temperature. As such, the frequency of super hurricanes on the peninsula is likely to increase," Park added.
Recently, a state-run research center said that the pace of climate change has been faster here than the rest of the world over the last decade.
"The density of carbon dioxide and other major greenhouse gases was higher here than elsewhere between 1999 and 2008" the Korea Global Atmosphere Watch Center (KGAWC) said.
"Rising greenhouse gases emitted at industrial complexes here and on the east coast of China are the main factors behind the increase," a KGAWC official said. "The situation is likely to worsen as more greenhouse gases could be generated not only internally but, from neighboring countries."
jhdo@koreatimes.co.kr
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