KoreaToday Seoul Capable of Developing Longer-Range Missiles
By Jung Sung-ki
Staff Reporter
Amid the growing North Korean missile threat, South Korea is seeking to get the ``OK'' from the United States on loosening eight-year-old guidelines limiting South Korea's missile capabilities.
A chief researcher at the state-run Agency for Defense Development (ADD) expressed confidence in developing longer-range ballistic missiles in a short period of time once the restrictions on missile ranges are revised.
Defense officials and experts here say a consensus has already been built both in Washington and Seoul that the 2001 guidelines preventing South Korea from building missiles with ranges exceeding 300 kilometers should be revised.
The issue is expected to be a top agenda item during the Security Consultative Meeting, the annual talks of defense ministers from South Korea and the United States, in October, they say.
Park Chang-kwon, a senior researcher at the state-funded Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), said the U.S. government would likely discuss the issue in a positive manner if the Seoul government makes a formal request.
``The United States fully recognizes the need for Seoul to develop a sufficient independent deterrence capability against threats posed by North Korea's asymmetrical weapons systems,'' Park said in a phone interview with The Korea Times. `` Seoul's improved global status and military technology level could be also key factors that Washington would consider regarding the missile range guidelines.''
In a related move, a senior U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) officer hinted earlier this month that the Obama administration would consult with South Korea to revise the guidelines but USFK Commander Gen. Walter Sharp said later that there had been no formal request for a revision.
In a video-linked news conference from New York last week, Sharp was quoted as saying, ``There's been no request to do that and I really don't see a need for that right now.''
South Korea restricted its missile range to 180 kilometers in a 1979 agreement with the United States, which in return offered technology to support Seoul's prescribed missile systems. Wary of advances in North Korean missile capabilities, Seoul notified Washington in 1995 that it wished to adjust these restrictions.
After five years of consultations, the two sides agreed on new guidelines which permit a range of 300 kilometers for Seoul's missiles. At the same time, the U.S. declared it would support South Korea's membership in the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).
The MTCR is an informal and voluntary regime of more than 30 countries that seeks to limit missile proliferation by restricting exports of missiles with a range of 300 kilometers or more, and capable of delivering a 500-kilogram payload.
Missile Capabilities
Currently, the South Korean Hyunmoo-series ballistic missiles with ranges of 180 to 300 kilometers are capable of hitting Pyongyang and Shinuiju in North Korea in the case of war. They also can strike short- and medium-range missile sites in Shinsang-ri, South Hamgyeong Province and Gitaeryeong, Gangwon Province.
But the South Korean missiles are unable to hit North Korean long-range missile sites, including the Musudan-ri site in North Hamgyeong Province, located more than 300 kilometers from Seoul.
On the other hand, North Korea is known to have deployed more than 600 Scuds with a range of 320-500 kilometers and 200 Rodongs with a range of 1,300 kilometers near the Demilitarized Zone that divides the two Koreas.
North Korea's short-range missiles pose a grave threat to South Korea and U.S. Forces Korea, missile experts say, because they could reach South Korean territory within about six minutes.
The reclusive state is also believed to be pushing ahead with the development of a 6,700-kilometer-range intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting parts of the United States.
Against this backdrop, defense analysts here say South Korea should be allowed to develop ballistic missiles with ranges of 550 to 700 kilometers to cover the entire North Korean territory.
Some politicians call for developing a ballistic missile with a range of some 1,000 kilometers to ``recover missile sovereignty.''
New Missile Bids
``We have secured enough technologies to develop advanced longer-range missiles at any time,'' an ADD researcher said on condition of anonymity. ``The thing is how the leadership of South Korea and the United States would discuss and resolve the missile range issue in a politically wise manner.''
He said his agency would be able to develop a 500-kilometer-range ballistic missile within six months and a 1,000-kilometer-range missile within one or two years.
Right after North Korea test-fired several missiles in 2006, including a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile, South Korea's defense minister announced the intention to develop a long-range cruise missile, which doesn't violate the MTCR because that regime only applies to high-velocity, free-flight ballistic missiles, and excludes slower, surface-skimming cruise weapons.
The ADD has led the cruise missile development program and is believed to have already developed a 1,500-kilometer-range cruise missile.
``The long-range cruise missile is a key option to deter a North Korean provocation, but a cruise missile, in general, is vulnerable to being intercepted by the enemy due to its low speed, and it is less powerful than a ballistic missile because of the light payload,'' the ADD official said.
In recent months, Pyongyang test-fired several short- and medium-range missiles off the eastern coast, sparking strong condemnation from the international community.
The test-firings came as the North has been under pressure from the international community to stop its provocative actions and give up its nuclear ambitions.
Some analysts say the missile launches Saturday appear to have been aimed at improving the missiles' accuracy.
South and North Korea remain technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.