There Won’t Be Kim Jong-il in 5 Years: CIA

North Korea's ailing supreme leader Kim Jong-il is likely to die in five years, America's top spy agency notified to its South Korean counterpart.

CIA recently conducted a "thorough" analysis on the health status of Kim Jong-il and concluded that the chance for Kim, who has been battling the complications of stroke and diabetes, to die in five years is 71 percent, Chosun Ilbo reported Saturday, citing an unnamed government source.

CIA analysis is based on Kim's age, medical history, physical state, the timing of his stroke and the following health deteriorations. The agency then compared them with medial data base in which it found cases of patients whose physical conditions were similar to those of Kim's, before proceeding comparison.

For the analysis, CIA also relied on a number of data on Kim, including the recent photos of conducting site inspections, his brain scan image handed by South Korean intelligence agency, as well as testimonies of "ranking informants," according to the newspaper.

This is the first time for the top U.S. intelligence unit to conduct a specific prospect of Kim's life expectancy.

Earlier this week, the Washington Times pictured a much grimmer outlook on Kim, saying he is likely to live only about a year or so, citing intelligence sources. It also said that Kim gave up on hope with the Western medicine and now is focusing on traditional Eastern medicine remedy.

While there are varying degrees of views on Kim's health, South Korea's intelligence agency believes Kim's overall conditions are "not so good," while he is able to move his body, according to Chosun Ilbo.

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