By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
There is bad news hiding in the good news for liberals that for the first time in the last four years they outpolled conservatives in the latest opinion poll.
Leaders of the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) face an uphill battle to maintain the momentum in the situation where continuous threats from North Korea obviously help conservatives.
The Korea Research survey of 1,000 adults found support for the DP stood at 23 percent, while that for the governing Grand National Party (GNP) was 21.1 percent.
Political observers and party strategists share the view that the DP's increased popularity was related to the nationwide mourning over the death of former liberal President Roh Moo-hyun.
Mourners continued to pay tribute to the late President even after his funeral last Friday.
Despite the sweeping upbeat mood in the DP, its tough chief negotiator Rep. Lee Kang-rae remained cautious wondering whether the ``Roh effect'' would endure in the face of North Korea resorting to bellicose acts.
``Strategists of the governing camp are desperately seeking to turn the tide of the situation facing them using the North Korea factor,'' the new floor leader said.
Political observers interpreted Lee's remark as a reflection of liberal worries over the possible negative impact of the North's provocative acts on the popularity of the largest opposition party.
Pollster Han Gui-young told The Korea Times that North Korea security threats tend to rally conservative voters.
``But this time, polls show that the Roh effect had a more significant influence on public support for parties than the North Korea factor, and the latter seems not to be playing as meaningful a role as it did in public opinions in the past,'' the senior researcher at the Korea Society Opinion Institute said.
Political scientist Yun Seong-yi expressed a similar view, saying the North Korea factor would not undermine the Roh effect.
``The Roh effect was very limited. But I disagree with the view that the North Korea-produced security threats are undermining it,'' said Prof. Yun of Kyung Hee University in Seoul.
Although living in the bull's eye, the political scientist said few Koreans feel a sense of threat from the North's nuclear and missiles tests, as they have previously experienced similar nightmarish threats. Few Koreans believe that a war will break out on the Korean Peninsula.
Political leaders, both conservatives and liberals, took advantage of the North Korea card especially before major elections in an attempt to turn the tide of hostile political circumstances in domestic politics.
Conservatives often relied on ``red scares'' such as espionage scandals and gunfire near the Demilitarized Zone dividing South and North Korea to heighten security tensions before presidential and National Assembly elections. These ``red-baiting'' ploys were aimed at unifying conservative voters.
Meanwhile, the liberal version of the North Korea card was detente-oriented. The late Roh met North Korean leader Kim Jong-il during a second inter-Korean summit held two months before the 2007 presidential election.
Critics said the one-off, photo shoot-oriented event was designed to woo liberal voters who support engagement with the Stalinist country. But the ``Sunshine Policy Card'' did not impress the voters as in the past.
Prof. Yun said the North Korea card was only effective in bolstering the two camps' traditional supporters.