By Sunny Lee

Amid North Korea's ratcheting up tensions on the Korean peninsula with the latest move of a possible missile test, a well-placed individual in the United States, who in recent days has met virtually all the key U.S. officials on North Korean affairs, told The Korea Times Friday that the Obama administration is very likely to turn from a "lukewarm" attitude and engage the Stalinist country more proactively to prevent it from moving further in its brinkmanship drive.

Walter Keats, president of Chicago-based Asia Pacific Travel, has met virtually all the highest-ranking U.S. front people and prominent strategists on North Korea, including Christopher Hill, Wendy Sherman, Jack Pritchard, Frank Jannuzi, Keith Luse, Scott Snyder, Selig Harrison and Kurt Campbell, the nominee to replace Hill as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.

"I am feeling that there is now a much better probability of the Obama administration changing the course enough to make North Korea not do anything precipitous, including a missile test," said Keats in an email interview. He also frequently visits North Korea.

Pyongyang has been showing signs of jittery and impatience with the newly-minted Obama administration, which it had expected to take a very different, accommodative policy on North Korea than the previous George W. Bush administration and roll out fast-track negotiation to resolve the nuclear standoff. So far, it hasn't taken the initiative.

Since late January, North Korea has intensified tensions on the Korean Peninsula and toughened its stance on denuclearization in an apparent move to influence the policy-making process in the new Obama administration.

On Jan. 30, Pyongyang heightened its hostile rhetoric against Seoul, announcing that the regime was scrapping all military and political agreements with the South, accusing the conservative Lee Myung-bak administration of pursuing confrontational policies that were pushing the two nations to the brink of war.

Soon afterwards, U.S. and South Korean intelligence agencies spotted a train carrying a cylinder-shaped object believed to be a Taepodong-2 missile which is said to be capable of reaching the west coast of the United States.

Observers say the North Koreans want to raise their negotiation leverage and test the new U.S. administration even before it is ready to engage with them.

"Ambassador Wendy Sherman asked the North Koreans to be patient, that the new team was not yet completely in place, that they would be reviewing U.S. policies toward North Korea and hopefully returning to diplomatic solutions for the many issues between the two," Keats said.

"She also encouraged them not to do anything in the short term that might negatively complicate this process," he added.

It was noted that Sherman was speaking in her unofficial capacity, since she is not in the government and no longer on the Obama transition team.

Kurt Campbell, who will replace Hill, is said to be "very interested" in the North Korea issue and will be "deeply involved" in North Korean affairs, even after a special U.S. envoy for North Korea is appointed.

Washington is likely to announce the new North Korean special envoy this weekend when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leaves for an Asian tour that will include a stop in South Korea. News reports said Clinton would appoint Stephen Bosworth, a former ambassador to South Korea, to the position.

Japan's Sankei Shimbun reported that Bosworth, who came back from Pyongyang last week, delivered a letter from Clinton to the North, demanding progress toward denuclearization. North Korea, in return, was said to have expressed that it wants direct talks with the United States.

Amid heightening tensions, Dennis Blair, Obama's intelligence chief, said Thursday in a senate hearing that North Korea is unlikely to use nuclear weapons against the United States, unless Pyongyang feels it is on the verge of military defeat, adding that the primary aim of its nuclear arsenal is deterrence and diplomatic leverage. His statement, an apparent recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state, is set to lead to repercussions from Seoul.

Some expect the communist regime to test-fire a ballistic missile next week, timed with Clinton's visit to South Korea, further raising its level of brinkmanship.

Ha Young-sun, professor of international relations at Seoul National University, doesn't exclude such a possibility. "If you look at the history of the North Korea-U.S. relationship, when North Korea turned to brinkmanship, the United States actually changed its attitude, and North Korea knows it."

He added that compared to South Korea and the United States, North Korea has little to lose, so it is more willing to step toward the edge of the brink. "But whether it will jump is another matter," he added.

boston.sunny@yahoo.com