By Jung Sung-ki
Staff Reporter

North Korea may raise the stakes with a threat to test-launch ballistic missiles or carry out a nuclear test early next year in line with the inauguration of the new United States government in a bid to get the upper hand in multilateral negotiations over its nuclear program, a report said Monday.

North Korea may push for the second nuclear test as part of its trademark brinkmanship tactic to neutralize six-party talks and build a bilateral dialogue formula with the forthcoming Barack Obama administration, said the report of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

The communist state test-fired several missiles, including a Taepodong-2 missile with a range of 6,700 kilometers that could reach Alaska or Hawaii with a light payload, in July 2006. It also conducted its first nuclear test in October 2006 in defiance of international calls to abolish its nuclear development program in October of the same year.

The Obama administration, however, is not expected to be active in dealing with the North Korea issue as it has many other challenges upon its inauguration, such as the global financial crisis, the war on terrorism, Iran's nuclear ambitions and relations with Russia, the institute forecast.

``Given its previous behavior, we cannot rule out the possibility that North Korea may threaten to suspend its denuclearization process, boycott the six-party talks and fire missiles or a nuclear weapon to get attention from the Obama administration or increase its leverage in the six-party forum,'' it said.

Such a strategy, however, is not likely to draw compromises from Washington and the new White House occupant may be tougher than his predecessor, George W. Bush, in coping with the North's brinkmanship, according to the report.

``Obama has called for dialogue and flexibility in dealing with North Korean issues on the surface, but in substance, his government's policy toward the North will be meticulous and hard-grained,'' it said.

As for the verification of Pyongyang's declaration of its nuclear activities and programs, the Obama administration is likely to adopt a tougher stance than that of the Bush administration, it said

The last six-party talks earlier this month in Beijing failed to reach an agreement on the establishment of a verification protocol as part of a 2007 disarmament-for-aid pact. The talks involve the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia.

Should the nuclear stalemate continue, the report said, North Korea may turn to South Korea later next year as its last source of assistance.

The global economic crisis will weigh heavily on the North, as its mineral export prices fall and outside aid decreases, and Pyongyang may face another food shortage crisis like it suffered in the mid-1990s, it said.

gallantjung@koreatimes.co.kr