By Kim Sue-young
Staff Reporter
North Korea's passage restriction will negatively affect the new U.S. administration's North Korea policy by causing bad recognition, a local expert in inter-Korean relations said Monday.
Park Jong-chul, a fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), speculated that U.S. President-elect Barack Obama may consequently enact tougher policies.
The communist state began to restrict overland passage via the inter-Korean border and halt tours to Gaeseong on Dec. 1 in retaliation to Seoul's tough policy toward the North.
``To the Obama administration, North Korea is an illegitimate nation which broke the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and conducted nuclear tests,'' he said.
``Considering North Korea's previous unyielding stance and disobedience to accords, the suspension of Gaeseong tours is not new. But it would have more hardliners support a more hawkish stance toward the North,'' Park said.
The new U.S. government is expected to reaffirm that verification is important to guarantee implementation of nuclear disarmament in future negotiations with North Korea, he added.
Suspension of the tour program also showed that North Korea is willing to endure economic losses in a bid to seek political and military benefits and protect its regime, Park claimed.
``The U.S.A. would recognize that North Korea will not engage in negotiations for economic gains only,'' he said. ``Besides, the United States would learn it could persuade the North to abandon its nuclear weapons program with a guarantee of security in both its regime and military, as well as economic compensation.''
On the other hand, frosty relations between Pyongyang and Seoul will likely burden the Obama administration, which is seeking ``tough and direct diplomacy,'' the researcher said.
``It would seek denuclearization with two tracks of the six-party talks and bilateral meetings at the same time. Washington seems willing to impose sanctions if North Korea refuses to give up its nuclear weapons,'' he said. ``But the sour relations between the two Koreas are expected to weaken the U.S. presence in negotiations.''
Pointing to North Korea's tactic of causing a crisis whenever a Seoul or Washington government is elected, the researcher said the Lee and Obama administrations should study measures to prevent the North from issuing further threats.
Inter-Korean ties have soured since the conservative President Lee took office in late February with a tougher stance toward the reclusive state.
The two Koreas technically still remain at war as the Korean War (1950-53) ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.