By Sunny Lee
Korea Times Correspondent
BEIJING ― "I believe Seoul will definitely give in and eventually compromise, faced with the firm North Korean stance," Shen Dingli, a security expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, said.
That's his prediction on the current stalemate of the two Koreas amid the Lee Myung-bak administration's toughened policy to corner Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons, which was countered by North Korea's virtual ultimatum to sever practically all ties with the South on Dec. 1.
Shen agrees with most other analysts' view on the situation that Pyongyang's primary purpose is to pressure Seoul so that it would soften its posture toward Pyongyang.
However, he believes that Pyongyang's brinkmanship is actually a cry for help. "North Korea's purpose is not to sever its relationship with South Korea. Its use of the word 'severing ties' is a formality. But the motivation is to let South Korea compromise and act in a way that's beneficial to North Korea," adding "North Korea's real purpose is to deepen its relationship with South Korea."
According to Shen, Seoul doesn't have a choice. "What options does Seoul have?" he said in a telephone interview. "Would it go to a war with North Korea?"
Seoul may not have a viable alternative. But Li Jun with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing pointes out a fundamental lack of common ground between the Lee Myung-bak administration and the Pyongyang government that won't make the situation any easier.
``The situation between the two Koreas has been very tense since Lee took the helm of South Korea. The fundamental problem is that they don't have any point where they both can meet," he said in a Chinese state radio program.
Li stopped short of predicting where the two Koreas' relationship would head from its current point, which is at, in his words, "The worst point in the last 10 years."
Meanwhile, Shen said North Korea would never allow nuclear sampling by international inspectors. Asked how such an attitude is likely to undermine its relationship with the Obama administration, Shen said, "North Korea can offend the U.S. more to keep its nuclear weapons."
According to him, the six-nation process to persuade North Korea to relinquish its nuclear weapons is a vain exercise. "The six-party talks are a lie because North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons."
"For the last five years of negotiations, North Korea has developed nuclear weapons. In five years, it will have more," he said.
He predicted that the U.S. would eventually settle for a nuclear North Korea. "The U.S. accepted nuclear weapons in Israel, China, Pakistan and India. Why couldn't it accept North Korea as a nuclear country?"
He said the U.S. is not ready. "Maybe not in five years. Not in 15 years. But in 50 years, it will."