By Kim Sue-young
Staff Reporter
Even before Barack Obama, a man from an ethnic minority with liberal leaning was elected the 44th U.S. president, there had been speculation that he would take a softer stance toward the reclusive state than his predecessor, President George W. Bush.
However, local analysts said that the core of U.S. policies toward North Korea would differ little.
Choi Kang, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul, said the new U.S. administration could take a stricter stand on nuclear and human rights issues. The institute is affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
``Many people belonging to the Obama campaign have been involved in previous negotiations with North Korea. They must know North Koreans well,'' he told The Korea Times.
It would appear that the Obama administration could take a softer stance but would harshly deal with pending issues, he said.
Given the tendency of Obama and his team, they would, the professor added, seek to deal with a range of issues rather than just the nuclear weapons program, which the Bush administration only focused on.
Indeed, Obama intimated the view that he is likely to take a more balanced approach toward North Korea.
During the Oct. 7 presidential debate, the then-presidential hopeful Obama hailed Washington's decision to remove North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, calling it a ``modest step forward.''
However, he indicated it was not unconditional, saying there needed to be an understanding of consequences for North Korea if it did not follow through.
Even though Obama kept proposing talks with the Stalinist state, it would be, Choi said, merely a way to discuss ways to establish a peaceful regime on the Korean Peninsula.
``I think main agenda for talks would not be that different from those raised by the Bush administration. So, I don't see the two countries inking a peace treaty or non-aggression pact,'' he said.
Instead, the Obama administration will likely talk about how to establish a peaceful regime on the peninsula, which has never been on the table, he added.
N. Korea Nuclear Issue Expected to Show Progress
Cho Seong-ryoul, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, said there are possibilities that the United States and North Korea could make rapid progress in their relationship as the Obama campaign has promoted the establishment of a diplomatic mission.
He quoted Frank Jannuzi, a senior Asia advisor to the Obama campaign, as saying that it was necessary to call for nuclear disarmament by opening relations through a diplomatic mission, which is one level higher than a liaison office.
Through the organization, the United States could have high-level talks whenever North Korea sent an invitation, he added.
``The difference between the Obama campaign and the Bush administration is that the former is trying to first secure a cornerstone for diplomacy and then proceed with denuclearization,'' Cho said.
Jannuzi, former secretary to Democratic vice president-elect Joe Biden, is expected to play a role similar to that of Christopher Hill, Washington's top envoy to the six-party talks, under the Obama administration.
Meanwhile, T. J. Pempel, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said there would be a clear difference from the ``early'' Bush, who focused exclusively on confrontation and regime change.
``Obama has continually called for direct negotiations with countries like the DPRK and I would expect the six-party talks to continue, although probably not with Hill in charge,'' he told The Korea Times via e-mail.
The DPRK is the official North Korean acronym for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the official name of North Korea.
``Whoever heads the negotiating team will surely pick up where we now are, and try to move through Phase 3 with a strong focus on greater accountability for any highly enriched uranium program and also take steps to eliminate the DPRK's current stock of fissile material,'' he said.
``The likely end result if the DPRK has really made a decision to surrender its nuclear material would be for more economic aid, closer ties with the United States, and regional economic assistance,'' the professor added.
Possibility of Dialogue
Would Obama's consistent calls for talks prompt North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to dialogue?
Pempel said it has already begun.
``Two-way dialogue has already begun, since Berlin. The United States is not likely to move too far outside the Six Party Process ― it wants a multilateral solution in which Japan, China and South Korea are important partners in any ultimate solution,'' he said.
Regarding probable key items on the bilateral agenda, the professor speculated a peace treaty among the United States, China, South and North Korea could be on the agenda.
``This would be a first item toward reconciliation. If progress is made on Phase 3 and denuclearization, I would expect a U.S. consulate to be opened in Pyongyang and for more economic aid and investment to flow in from Northeast Asia, though probably little from the United States,'' he said.
U.S. firms might, however, be tempted to invest in Gaeseong or other export-free zones, he added.
``A lot also depends on the DPRK. It is not at all clear that their leaders really `want' to surrender nuclear material, regardless of U.S. actions or that they want a substantially more open economy,'' he said. ``These will be difficult areas of negotiation in the next few years.''
On the other hand, Professor Choi cast a skeptical view on the possibility of dialogue.
He said, ``I think the North Korean nuclear issue is not the top priority of the United States. Its urgent mission is overcoming the financial predicament and finding solutions to issues related to Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq. Thus, I think bilateral relations will be in a lull for a while.''
Inter-Korean Talks Likely to Resume Early Next Year
Local analysts shared a similar view that inter-Korean talks would likely take place early next year.
``By next spring, North Korea could have dialogue with the United States or create an atmosphere for the talks. After that, inter-Korean talks could take place,'' Cho said.
Professor Choi also said the North is expected to suggest talks to the South to secure food and fertilizer aid.
``North Korea proposed working-level military talks twice in the last two months, shifting blame on the South for the frosty relations in a bid to have the talks,'' he said.
ksy@koreatimes.co.kr
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