By Kim Yoo-chul
Staff Reporter
Samsung Electronics is having doubts over the marketability of the next-generation storage format ― Blu-ray ― saying that the format could be a short-lived one, as little as five years. However, Sony says the format will last for at least 10 years.
"I think the high-definition Blu-ray format has only five years left. I certainly wouldn't give it 10," Andy Griffiths, a regional director of Samsung's branch in the United Kingdom said recently. Samsung is the world's No. 2 seller of Blu-ray players.
"Blu-ray will be replaced with a new format or technology," he said, without giving more explanation as to why he believed that it had a relatively short shelf life.
The remark was likely to irk fellow industry officials who are trying to create the perception that the format is a long-term replacement for the standard definition DVD.
Blu-ray is the advanced de facto optical disc format that has been developed for high-definition audio-video and high-capacity data software applications. A single-layer disc can hold up to 25-gigabytes of data while a double-layer disc can hold up to 50-gigabytes.
Just like Betamax in the late 1970s, it was Hollywood that eventually decided on the fate of Blu-ray’s competitor, HD-DVD, as the success of the new format depends on content.
Regarding Samsung's forecast, Rick Clancy, a Sony senior vice president said, "I believe the value of Blu-ray products is going to increase for many years to come, perhaps a decade."
A Samsung spokesman declined to comment over the dispute between the top company executives.
Outlook Uncertain
Research firms and analysts say the Blu-ray player sales will be lower than expected over the next few years as the economic downturn, satisfaction with the regular DVD format and fewer Blu-ray titles are hurting consumer confidence toward the device.
"There's a lot of factors that come into play there, including the economy. But it's still wait-and-see," Sigma, a major suppliers of the players to Samsung said in a note to clients.
Even Intel and Hewlett-Packard are collaborating with Hollywood on standards to make it easier for consumers to download and watch copyrighted content on all manner of devices, while they have also been in talks to clean up piracy-protection worries when consumers watch clips off the Internet.
"Amid wide-penetration of the Internet, it will be very difficult to persuade people to buy Blu-ray players as they find it easier to get high-quality moves off the Web or even via IPTV," a Samsung insider told The Korea Times.
Sony officially lowered the price of its most popular Blu-ray players to realize "economies of a scale." Samsung Electronics said the market will expand after experiencing three or four "test periods." But the companies are hesitating to unveil more detailed strategies.
At the recently finished IFA electronics fair in Berlin, Germany, Sony Chairman Howard Stringer declined to comment over the next Blu-ray strategy, while Samsung was also being passive about the new business.
In April, Samsung said it was planning to develop Blu-ray players into a 1 trillion won ($1 billion) business over the next five years.
"The long-term destiny of Blu-ray products is uncertain due to the wider penetration of Internet-based TVs and decreasing consumer spending hit by the global economic downturn," said an LG insider.
In addition to Sony and Samsung, LG Electronics and Panasonic are injecting new capital into the fledging market. Despite their steady introduction, titles available on the format have stagnated at 600 movies, according to industry watchers.
"In the short-term, the market is probably lucrative. But in the long term, the prediction is somewhat dire," said the LG insider.
yckim@koreatimes.co.kr
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