Visitors and people with relatives in the North take a look at North Korea through binoculars at the Imjingak Observation Deck in Paju, north of Seoul, Monday, the last day of the Chuseok holiday, amid a flurry of reports on North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s health problems. / Korea Times |
By Jung Sung-ki
Staff Reporter
Even after North Korea announced a plan to rebuild its Yongbyon nuclear facility to protest a delay in its removal from a U.S. terrorism blacklist, the international community saw little chance of a backtrack of the six-party process aimed at denuclearizing the North.
Chief nuclear negotiators from the six-way forum involving the United States, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia also downplayed Pyongyang's announcement on Aug. 28 as its trademark brinkmanship tactics, expecting the North to return to the negotiating table sooner or later.
But their guesswork seems to turn out to be false amid a whirl of reports over North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's health problems, which experts say would most probably lead to a takeover by the North's army taking much harder line on the issue of its nuclear arsenal.
Concerns about Kim's health are stoking anxiety among regional powers in the six-party talks about the repercussions if he becomes incapacitated or dies.
``If Kim Jong-il is seriously ill, the North's military circles are sure to play a key role in stabilizing the regime. In that process, the nuclear negotiations would be unlikely to make any substantial progress and would remain at a standstill until Kim's comeback,'' said Yo Ho-yeol, a professor of North Korean studies at Korea University in Seoul.
Yoo and many other analysts on North Korea at home and abroad said Kim's one-man rule was expected to be replaced by a collective leadership centered around the regime's National Defense Council.
``Almost all experts expect the National Defense Council ― the army ― to run the country (if Kim is incapacitated or dies) and that would mean a much harder line on issues like nuclear weapons,'' Michael Green, a former White House Asia hand, was quoted by AFP as saying.
Professor Lee Chung-min of the International Relations Department at Yonsei University agreed, saying any new figurehead would probably be nominated by the army but would immediately have to share power with the Kim family and the Workers' Party.
Professor Kim Keun-shik of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul said Pyongyang was expected to engage in talks over the dismantlement of its nuclear programs next year with the new U.S. government.
``In the worst-case scenario, North Korea is expected to maintain a hard-line stance on the nuclear issue intentionally despite an unstable domestic situation in order to have a showdown with the new U.S. administration,'' said Kim.
Participating nations at the six-party talks hoped the second-phase denuclearization process under a 2007 disarmament-for-aid pact would be completed by October, and the full disablement of North Korea's nuclear facilities could then begin.
The second-phase steps include North Korea's declaration of its nuclear programs with verification by related countries.
Pyongyang submitted an inventory of its nuclear materials and programs on June 24, prompting U.S. President George W. Bush to give the minimum 45-day notice to Congress of his intent to remove the impoverished state from the list of terrorism sponsors. That deadline passed Aug. 11.
Washington insists it will remove North Korea from the list only after the establishment of a comprehensive verification mechanism on ``international standards,'' including intrusive inspections of North Korean nuclear facilities, soil sampling and interviews with key scientists involved in the nuclear programs.
The United States also wants to verify details of the North's suspected uranium enrichment program and nuclear proliferation activities.
North Korea has vehemently opposed the U.S. proposal, arguing it would infringe on its sovereignty. Following its announcement to suspend the disablement of the Yongbyon nuclear plant, the North has taken steps to restore the plutonium-producing facility, according to reports.
Last Saturday, U.S. officials were quoted as saying that North Koreans had begun removing International Atomic Energy Agency seals from parts of the nuclear facilities that had been disabled.
The disablement of the Yongbyon compound is the key part of the so-called Feb. 13 agreement under which North Korea is required to declare and abandon all its nuclear programs in return for economic and political concessions, including removal from the U.S. terror list.
The de-listing is crucial for the North since it has banned the communist state from receiving foreign aid and loans. The country was put on the list in 1988 after its agents blew up a South Korean passenger plane, killing all 115 people aboard.
Seoul officials still expect the nuclear talks to get on the track soon, citing a report that the United States proposed a more lenient verification protocol to the North through China, the host nation for the multinational disarmament talks, earlier this month.
``The new protocol is known to be more flexible, reflecting North Korea's position to an extent,'' a Seoul diplomat said, asking not to be named. ``Now we should closely watch how the North will react to it.''
North Korea's nominal number two leader, Kim Yong-nam, painted a bright picture for the prospects for the denuclearization process. In an interview with Japan's Kyodo news agency, Kim said he believed any problems at the six-party talks would be resolved soon. The White House hailed Kim's remarks immediately.
``It's a positive sign that the leadership of the United States and North Korea share their views on the goal of denuclearizaiton,'' an official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said. ``Kim Jong-il's health problems could be a variant for the talks, but the North seems not to be negative about the resumption of them at the moment.''
gallantjung@koreatimes.co.kr
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한국과 일본 국가부도위험 비슷해졌다
