By Jung Sung-ki
Staff Reporter
South Korea and the United States are preparing to map out specific courses of military action to respond to various types of internal instability in North Korea, including regime collapse and mass defections, a defense source said Thursday.
The move comes amid a whirl of reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is seriously ill. South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials have confirmed that Kim is believed to be recovering from a stroke.
``Seoul and Washington have virtually agreed to transform a conceptual scenario to prepare for the collapse of North Korea into a full-fledged operational plan. This issue is expected to be addressed at an annual meeting of defense ministers from South Korea and the United States next month in Washington, D.C.,'' the source said, asking to remain anonymous.
Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee also hinted that progress has been made at joint meetings between South Korean and American military authorities to develop an operational plan to prepare for sudden changes in the North.
``We're developing a plan to prepare for any type of North Korean provocation whether it would be a limited or full-scale warfare. We're closely cooperating with other government agencies on the contingency plans,'' Lee said at the National Assembly's Defense Committee.
The South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command drew up a conceptual action plan to respond to sudden changes in North Korea, codenamed CONPLAN 5029, in 1999.
The plan includes outlines for joint military responses by South Korean and U.S. troops to various levels of internal turmoil in the communist North, according to sources.
Contingency situations include a mass inflow of North Korean refugees, a civil war provoked by revolt or coup, South Korean hostages being held in the North, natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods, and other unusual situations in the North, they said.
The plan also includes measures to prevent Pyongyang's weapons of mass destruction from being smuggled out of the North if the regime is involved in a domestic crisis or suddenly collapses.
In 2005, the Roh Moo-hyun administration which pursued a policy of greater independence from the United States rejected a U.S. proposal to develop the conceptual plan to an operational plan involving more specific contingency scenarios.
Roh's National Security Council said it had vetoed the proposal because the operational plan could infringe on South Korea's sovereignty and the U.S. military could conduct unilateral military action against North Korea and cause a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula.
The council cited an alleged scenario under which the U.S. military could command South Korean military assets in the event of a North Korean collapse, such as the North's key nuclear and military facilities.
Lawmakers and experts echoed the need to develop CONPLAN 5029, while calling for preparations against any potential move by China should an unstable situation arise in North Korea.
``It's an urgent issue to transform CONPLAN 5029 to OPLAN 5029. We also need to carefully review China's motives for deploying large numbers of troops near the Yalu River bordering China,'' said Rep. Kim Sung-hoi of the governing Grand National Party, who belongs to the Defense Committee.
Kim Tae-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis, anticipated that China would likely make efforts to control North Korea in case of an emergency before South Korean does.
``If China comes to control North Korea before South Korea does, that might hinder the realization of peaceful unification of the two Koreas. Therefore, we should pay close attention to preventing China from having a hold over the post-Kim Jong-il North Korea,'' Kim said at a July 31 forum organized by the Citizens United for a Better Society in Seoul.
U.S. help would be crucial in securing the North against China in that scenario, said Kim.