By Michael Ha
Staff Reporter
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's reduced capacity to oversee his government, coupled with an uncertain succession plan, may mean a drastic shift in the regional political landscape, according to a prominent lawmaker.
Rep. Gong Sung-jin, a member of the governing Grand National Party's decision-making Supreme Council, said Thursday that if the North Korean leader is forced to step back from day-to-day oversight of his regime, it might allow the Chinese government to enhance its political and economic influence over the hermit nation.
During a radio interview, Gong said the North Korean leader's three grown sons ― Kim Jong-nam, 37, Kim Jong-chul, 27, and Kim Jong-woon, 25 ― may not yet be ready to take over the leadership, according to local reports.
``They are not prepared to lead a smooth transition of power in the post-Kim Jong-il regime,'' Gong said. ``What's likely to happen in Pyongyang if the North Korean leader is incapacitated is that a committee comprised of senior military officials may wrest power from the Kim family.
``This type of military rule in Pyongyang, if it were to happen, would likely lead to a pro-China stance and there may be little that the United States could do to stop it. Washington would have little choice but to silently agree to the new arrangement and the change in the local geopolitical landscape.''
In return for allowing a greater Chinese influence in the northern half of the Korean Peninsula, Gong speculated, the United States may ask Beijing to help block nuclear proliferation in the region and put a stop to Pyongyang spreading nuclear materials and know-how to other rogue nations.
He said that the hastily arranged visit by the chief U.S. nuclear negotiator Christopher Hill to Beijing last week might have been intended to discuss this issue among others.
The lawmaker said that while Beijing most likely would not outwardly try to annex the North, it would actively try to bring the country in to Beijing's sphere of influence. ``We should pay especially close attention to any movements of Chinese military forces currently stationed along the Chinese-North Korea border.''
Gong noted that North Koreans already depend heavily on China for several things. ``In reality, North Korea gets more than 80 percent of its basic staples from China. It's now almost impossible to imagine North Korea apart from China.''
The GNP lawmaker also said there was a possibility, though unlikely, of the Chinese military moving into the North if the regime becomes unstable. ``And if there is a flood of North Korean refugees crossing over to China in the post-Kim Jong-il regime, China may send in troops to stabilize the border and may use it as an excuse to even move some of its military forces into North Korea, in the name of bringing stability to the region.''
Another GNP lawmaker Lee Chul-woo also noted that if a military committee takes over the leadership in the North, it would likely take a pro-China stance that will bring Pyongyang even closer to Beijing.
Lee said during a radio interview that if administrative officials or technocrats within the regime gain control, ``they will gravitate toward building closer ties with South Korea, not necessarily with China."