By Michael Ha
Staff Reporter
The post-Kim Jong-il regime in North Korea is likely to be dominated by senior members of the communist Workers' Party, not by a committee of military officials as some analysts have predicted, according to a former secretary of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party Tuesday.
Hwang Jang-yop, 85, who defected to South Korea in 1997, observed that Kim has been keeping a tight rein over senior military personnel ``so it's unlikely that military officers would try to control the regime. Kim has been keeping a close rein on officers at the brigadier level and above. These military officers don't have much complaint against the regime," the Yonhap News Agency reported.
Commenting on the North Korean leader's possible succession plan, Hwang said Kim's eldest son, Kim Jong-nam, 37, is the most likely candidate to take over the top leadership. ``He has the backing from officials in Beijing," said Hwang, adding that ``he also has the support from Chang Sung-taek," Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law and an influential figure in Kim's inner circle.
The former communist party secretary also said that even if Kim Jong-il dies or is incapacitated, ``that would not lead to the regime's collapse."
``Kim's subordinates already oversee the regime and it's in their interest to keep the government going. His death would not result in a political chaos or a rebellion. They will bring in a second hereditary transfer of power," he said.
Hwang also observed that North Korea could follow China's model of market economic reform. ``Beijing may agree to this type of reform in the North but that would be possible only after Kim's death."
Hwang is the highest-ranking North Korean ever to defect to South Korea. Hwang was one of the architects behind the North Korean regime's philosophy of self-reliance.