By Bae Ji-sook
Staff Reporter
Local broadcasting companies' exit polls failed to match the April 9 parliamentary election results by a large margin again. Criticism is rising toward the stations for its spending on the gathering the data.
On Wednesday evening, after all votes were in, people gathered around their television sets to see exit polls and heard that the governing Grand National Party would achieve a landslide victory with 162-181 (SBS's calculation), 154-178 (MBC's), 155-178 (KBS's) and 160-184 (YTN's).
They also estimated that Lee Jae-oh of the GNP would beat Moon Kook-hyun of the Creative Korean Party at Eunpyeong district in Seoul over marginal difference. Cameras captured GNP members looking overjoyed and others appearing anxious and gloomy.
However, later in the evening, people began to learn that Moon had defeated Lee with a 11.2 percentage point lead. Also, the GNP had won 153 seats. The GNP showed some disappointment, while others expressed relief.
The gap was larger than similar comparisons in the December presidential election.
TV stations explained that the election was the most complicated one ever, with GNP defectors winning where the GNP was dominant.
However, media experts said exit polls conducted by these companies gave hugely inaccurate predictions four parliamentary elections in a row.
They said the traditional way of exit polling ― handing out memos on which people write who they voted for ― does not work anymore. Some questioned whether the stations should conduct such research at such enormous cost.
``The range of their estimation was too large. For instance, if the GNP won 178 seats, they would say they got it right, but if the party only won 154 seats, which is obviously a huge difference, then they would still claim they were right,'' a frustrated viewer said.
Media experts said it is natural that exit polls are false. Prof. Kang Hyung-cheol of Sookmyung Women's University said people decline to talk about their political ideas in public and tend to lie about who they voted for.
He also said the polls have huge loopholes.
``You cannot force anyone to answer, so those who voted for minor parties would not admit it while those voted for the governing party would be happy to say so,'' he said, explaining that people tend to feel secure when they feel like being part of the masses. ``This time, the GNP dominated, so people just said they voted for the GNP even though they didn't,'' he said.
However, Kang said the exit polls have become a sort of national entertainment rather than serious news and that it should remain.
``Everyone takes it for granted they'll watch the exit poll results on election days with their families at six o'clock and there is no need to abolish it. Of course it would be better to conduct the polls less expensively,'' he said. ``I say in some ways, the surveys conducted ahead of elections is worse. They actually mislead people but the exit poll causes no harm,'' he added.