With two days to go before the parliamentary elections, officers of the Incheon Coast Guard move ballot boxes for voters living on nearby islands at a port in Incheon, Monday. The 13-day official campaigning ends Tuesday. / Yonhap |
Conservative Parties Likely to Secure Comfortable Majority
By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
With one day before the legislative elections, the governing conservative Grand National Party (GNP) claimed Monday that it was heading toward victory.
Meanwhile, the main opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) said it could get 70 plus seats in the elections to be held Wednesday.
GNP leaders said in an interview that the party would certainly secure more than 150 seats in the elections. They added that it could garner up to 170 parliamentary seats if their candidates in too-close-to-call districts do well.
President Lee Myung-bak needs more than half of the National Assembly seats to successfully pursue his strenuous reform drive.
As the President seeks tax cuts and a contentious cross-country canal project, his party claims that he needs to get solid support from the legislative body.
However, the liberal UDP has appealed to voters to give more support to its candidates so that the party can effectively check the government and its party.
The UDP said it needs at least one third or 100 of the 299 seats up for grabs to prevent the GNP from unilaterally passing a possible revision of the Constitution.
Of the 299 lawmakers, 245 are elected through direct voting in each district nationwide, while the remaining 54 are chosen under the proportional representation system.
UDP Co-chairman Sohn Hak-kyu said President Lee was attempting to oppress the opposition party with his recent visit to Eunpyeong, Seoul, where his right-hand man Lee Jae-oh is struggling to deal with Moon Kook-hyun of the Creative Korea Party. A poll conducted on April 1 said Rep. Lee is trailing the race by a double-digit margin.
However, the National Election Commission (NEC) dismissed the opposition's claim, saying Lee's visit was not a violation of the Election Law.
Experts chart three possible scenarios on the President's post-election management of the economy, depending on how many seats the governing wins in the elections.
The best possible scenario for Lee would come when the GNP gains more than 168 seats. With that figure, the party could control all of the 16 National Assembly committees, and it needs no support from other parties to push through Lee's reforms.
But the figure is not still big enough for the party to push through a constitutional change as it requires the approval of two thirds of sitting lawmakers.
Pollsters said the GNP could win around 150 seats in the elections if its candidates lose the heated races in Seoul and adjacent areas, and independent candidates in the GNP's stronghold of Gyeongsang gain more seats than expected.
If this happens, it would require the GNP to work closely together with minor parties to pass the President's reforms.
The GNP might attempt to build an alliance with the minor conservative Liberty Forward Party (LFP) as their stances on major policies are almost identical.
Pollsters did not rule out the possibility of the GNP winning less than half the seats up for grabs, although the chances seem very low.
If this happens, Lee's leadership will face testing times.
The President would have a tough job pushing through his signature policy initiatives such as the canal project, which has drawn much criticism from the public as well as the opposition parties.
hkang@koreatimes.co.kr
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