WASHINGTON _ Estimating North Korea's nuclear stock requires information on the country's weapons design and technical operation of the main reactor, which is currently lacking, according to a recent U.S. congressional research report.
Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test in October last year after declaring itself a nuclear state in February 2005. But seismic tests showed that the yield from the nuclear detonation was far less than normal for a successful test, raising questions about North Korea's nuclear weapons capability.
South and North Korea, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan are members of the six-party process which, if and when successful, would remove all atomic weapons and programs from the Korean Peninsula. The latest deal made in October commits Pyongyang to disable its key nuclear facilities and declare its nuclear
stockpile, including any proliferation activities and history of plutonium and uranium production, by end of this month.
Negotiators have been pressing the North to submit a correct and comprehensive declaration, saying promised incentives hinge on how truthful it is.
The U.S. estimates that the North produced close to 50 kilograms of plutonium, the main ingredient in nuclear weapons, but although experts stay close to this estimate, an assessment calls more information, said the report dated Nov. 21 by the Congressional Research Service (CRS).
CRS reports are distributed to members of the Congress and their staff.
"A key factor in assessing how many weapons North Korea can produce is whether North Korea needs to use more or less material than the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) standards of 8kg of plutonium and 25kg of highly enriched uranium per weapon," the report said.
"The amount of fissile material used in each weapon is determined by the design sophistication. There is no reliable public information on North Korean nuclear weapons design," said the report titled "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Latest Developments."
Estimates of the North's plutonium production also depend on a variety of technical factors, the report said, "including the average power level of the reactor, days of operation, how much of the fuel is reprocessed and how quickly, and how much plutonium is lost in production processes."
Estimates put North Korea's plutonium production at anywhere between 30 and 50 kg, with an approximate 5 to 6kg of it used for the October 2006 nuclear test. Siegfried Hecker of Stanford University, for instance, believes the North has between 40-50 kg of plutonium and used 6 kg of it for the test. David Albright of
the Institute for Science and International Security says Pyongyang most likely has 33 to 55 kg of plutonium, and spent roughly 5 kg for the test.
These assessments suggest North Korea could have anywhere from between four to eight nuclear weapons, the CRS report pointed out.
(Yonhap)