By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
Korea is seeing a big paradigm shift in the 2007 presidential campaign.
At the heart of the changing undercurrents is frontrunner candidate Lee Myung-bak of the Grand National Party (GNP) and his continued lead in the polls since January.
The latest poll found that Lee's support is six times higher than that of Chung Dong-young of the United New Democratic Party (UNDP) whose support stood at 8.5 percent.
Polls in the 2002 presidential election showed the frontrunner being replaced by the second-placed candidate three times between January and November.
Political strategists said Lee's unrivaled popularity is partly because the liberal party has yet to pick its nominee and therefore predicted that the competition will be a close race once the UNDP picks its nominee on Oct. 15.
Unlike five years ago, no anti-Americanism and Internet-based campaigns are shaping the race. Korea has also seen a big demographic change in line with the aging of society. Here are the major trends that have emerged in the presidential race so far this year.
Anti-American sentiment had been abused as a major campaign issue in 2002 and it helped then ruling party candidate Roh Moo-hyun win the election.
But five years later, will anti-Americanism and nationalism raise their ugly heads in the 2007 presidential election?
In July, there was speculation that this might arise as a major campaign issue shortly after Korean aid workers were kidnapped by the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Some civic groups urged the U.S. government to play a proactive role in obtaining the release of the hostages, saying Washington was inactive because of its foreign policy stance against terrorists.
However, the hostage standoff has not led the public to launch a campaign against the U.S.
A growing number of experts are predicting that the South-North summit, scheduled to take place from Oct. 2-4, will certainly make an impact on the presidential election.
Prof. Nam Sung-wook of Korea University said the media frenzy on the political event will likely continue until the end of October as both print media and broadcasters are preparing several in-depth reports on the summit.
The professor predicted the summit factor will give liberal candidates an edge by creating a campaign environment featuring peace vs. war. Another key theme is who is better qualified to stimulate the economy and create more jobs.
Prof. Hahm Sung-deuk of Korea University said aging voters are another factor that will make an impact on the election results.
According to him, in 2002 the number of eligible voters in their 20s and 30s accounted for 49.8 percent of the total, with voters over 50 trailing at 27.3 percent.
However, in 2007, younger voters account for 43.1 percent, down 6.7 percentage points over five years, while those over 50 jumped to 34 percent, an increase of 6.7 percentage points from the last presidential election. This shows that in the past five years, Korea has seen a big demographic change due to the aging of society. Traditionally, young voters are more liberal than their conservative seniors.
Political analysts say that one of the critical factors that caused a liberal candidate to win the 2002 presidential election was the effective use of the Internet in the campaigns.
Conservatives learnt a painful lesson from their ignorance of the power of the Internet in campaigning and began to equip themselves with the technology and now they are as savvy as liberals.
There is a shift in the Internet user generation. According to research, 4 out of 10 people in their 40s used the Internet in 2002. These days 8 out of 10 in the 40-something age group use the technology.
Further research has shown that youth unemployment has created a shift in the campaign environment.
In 2002, then presidential candidate Roh Moo-hyun of the governing party was widely supported by younger voters, while his counterpart Lee Hoi-chang of the GNP was struggling to get support from them.
Experts said that this will not be the case in the December election.
According to them, a growing number of younger voters have begun to show a conservative political orientation and are interested in Lee Myung-bak as he has so far been portrayed as a candidate who can create the most jobs.
More younger voters answered they would support a candidate who has an economy-first agenda. Experts said younger people's conservative voting pattern explains Lee Myung-bak's high popularity.
Independent candidate Chung Mong-joon declared his bid for the presidency in July 2002. Polls said his support stood at around 30 percent around this time five years ago.
Chung dropped out of the campaign in November to support the ruling party candidate Roh. Polls said his support for the ruling party candidate created a synergy effect and, consequently, helped Roh win the election.
All eyes are on if there will be a wild card such as Chung in the 2007 election.
Speculation is focused on independent candidate Moon Kook-hyun, the former chief executive officer of Yuhan Kimberly, who could do a repeat of Chung. However, many are skeptical that Moon could be as strong as Chung as his support currently hovers around 3 percent.