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Fri, May 20, 2022 | 12:09
Economy
Moody's warns Korea of 'perception risk'
무디스 "개성공단 폐쇄, 한국 국가신용에 부정적"
Posted : 2016-02-15 17:08
Updated : 2016-02-15 21:48
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By Kim Jae-kyoung

Steffen Dyck
Steffen Dyck
SINGAPORE ― Global investors' growing awareness of geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula may cut foreign direct investment and spark a capital outflow from the country, according to Moody's Investors Service.

"Merely the perception of geopolitical risks can hurt a country's capital, current and fiscal accounts, making it harder for it to service its debt," said Steffen Dyck, a senior analyst from Moody's.

"It can lead to lower foreign direct investment and higher funding costs for the public and private sectors," he added. "We have seen increased foreign investor awareness in previous episodes of heightened geopolitical tensions."

His remarks suggest that the Seoul government should pay greater attention to coping with foreign investors' concerns about such risks which, if not dealt with properly, could deal a blow to the domestic financial market.

Still, he is positive about the country's capability to weather the geopolitical risks.

"While geopolitics poses a salient risk for South Korea, we expect Seoul's robust alliance with the U.S. and China's influence to contain the risk of direct conflict between South and North," he said.

He pointed out that regional geopolitical risk in relation to the South-North situation was a key factor for the South's sovereign rating, currently Aa2 with a "stable outlook."

Dyck is vice president of the agency's sovereign risk group that evaluates Korea's sovereign rating.

Despite the growing geopolitical risk that Pyongyang's recent provocations have caused, he said the agency had no immediate plans to modify its credit rating for South Korea, citing the country's strong economic fundamentals.

"Closing the Gaeseong Industrial Complex could be seen as credit-negative," he said. "However, at this point we do not think that there is any material difference to previous events."

He explained that Korea's sturdy economic fundamentals have made it resilient to deal with episodes of heightened tension.

"The country has a strong external position, supported by competitive export industries and large holdings of official foreign exchange reserves," he said.

He pointed out that the country's current account had been in surplus every year since the Asian financial crisis, and reached a 16-year high of 6.3 percent of GDP in 2014.

"These large and recurrent buffers will bolster the resilience of the government, banking and corporate sectors against any volatility in capital flows," he said.


S&P maintains ‘stable outlook'

Standard & Poor's (S&P), another global credit ratings agency, expects that the latest provocations will have only a limited impact on Seoul's financial markets, indicating that the agency also had no plans to modify its ratings.

"Our outlook on the sovereign ratings of South Korea remains stable. The geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula are already factored into our ratings," said S&P's Singapore-based analyst Yee Farn Phua.

"Recent events like the nuclear test and long-range rocket launch by North Korea can have a temporary impact on financial markets and economic activities. But we observe that they have not escalated beyond levels that we assess as part of the factors supporting South Korean sovereign ratings."

On Friday, Korea's financial markets took another heavy beating, with the benchmark KOSPI dipping 1.41 percent. The tech-laced KOSDAQ plunged 6 percent on the same day, resulting in activation of a "circuit breaker" for the first time in more than four-and-a-half years.


무디스 "개성공단 폐쇄, 한국 국가신용에 부정적"

'지정학적 리스크 부각 불구 '현상 유지' 문제 없어'

국제신용평가사 무디스는 15일 '개성공단의 폐쇄(closure)는 지정학적 리스크를 고조시켜 한국의 국가신용에 부정적 영향을 줄 것'이라고 밝혔다.

    무디스는 이날 보도자료에서 '남북 화해의 마지막 상징이었던 개성공단의 폐쇄는 한국의 신용에 부정적'이라며 '이는 지정학적 리스크를 높이기 때문'이라고 지적했다.

    이 회사는 '한국에 의한 개성공단 완전 폐쇄는 전례가 없는 일이고 38선의 혹독한 긴장을 부각시킨다'라며 '한국은 이전의 긴장 상황에서도 개성공단의 가동을 유지해온 바 있다'고 강조했다.

    또 '지정학적 리스크에 대한 인식은 국가의 자본수지와 경상수지, 재정수지를 훼손해 채무 상환을 어렵게 하고 외국인직접투자(FDI)를 낮추며 공공 및 민간 영역의 자금조달 비용을 높일 수 있다'며 '직접적인 군사 충돌은 한국 정부의 기능과 결제 시스템에 광범위한 지장을 초래할 것'이라고 무디스는 경고했다.

    무디스는 그러나 '우리의 메인 시나리오는 '현 상태'(status quo)가 지속되리란 것'이라며 '한국과 미국의 단단한 동맹관계 및 중국의 영향력은 남북간의 직접적 충돌이라는 리스크를 억제할 것으로 예상된다'고 밝혔다.

    또 '개성공단의 생산액은 한국 국내총생산(GDP)의 0.04%에 불과해 폐쇄 자체가 경제에 별다른 충격은 주지 않을 것'이라며 '정부의 자금 조달 비용도 아직까지는 영향을 받고 있지 않다'고 분석했다.

    무디스는 '개성공단의 북측 노동자 5만4천명의 임금은 평양으로 바로 들어간다'며 '한국 정부의 공단 폐쇄 결정은 이런 자금들이 장거리 미사일과 핵무기의 업그레이드에 쓰여진다는 것을 전제한 것'이라고 덧붙였다. (연합뉴스)
Emailkjk@ktimes.com Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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