By Choi Sung-jin
Korea's sluggish export performance is expected to continue through the first quarter of this year, a think tank reported on Tuesday.
"First-quarter exports are estimated to fall 9 percent from the same period last year given the decline in export leading indicators," Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute said in a report.
According to the report, exports in the fourth quarter of 2015 totaled $130.4 billion, down 11.7 percent from a year ago. Low international oil prices led to the export drop of related products. Also, semiconductor shipments, which had been brisk during the first half of the year, turned downward in the last quarter, and the decline in the export of steel and shipbuilding became steeper amid the supply glut.
The drop of export leading index shows foreign shipments would remain in the doldrums through the first three months of the year, the report said.
The export leading index is made to forecast whether overseas shipments will rise or fall, by taking various factors into account, such as importers' business cycle, imports of raw materials, orders received by major industries and foreign exchange rates, assuming the level of 2010 is 100.
The export leading index of the first quarter is 115.4, down 4.1 percent from the fourth quarter of last year (120.3) and 6.3 percent lower than the same quarter of 2015 (123.2). The index, which rose to 130.4 in the fourth quarter of 2014, plunged to 116.4 in the second quarter of last year, rebounding in the third and fourth quarters but falling back in the first quarter this year.
The report attributed the fall in the export leading index to declines in export prices resulting from low international oil prices, business slumps in major importing countries and the fall in the Korean currency's real effective exchange rate that works to weaken the price competitiveness of Korean exports.
The drop in the amount of exports in the first quarter was estimated to be smaller than that of the final quarter of last year. "This is because exports in the first quarter of 2015 remained at the relatively low level of $133.4 billion," a researcher said.
Korea's sluggish export performance is expected to continue through the first quarter of this year, a think tank reported on Tuesday.
"First-quarter exports are estimated to fall 9 percent from the same period last year given the decline in export leading indicators," Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute said in a report.
According to the report, exports in the fourth quarter of 2015 totaled $130.4 billion, down 11.7 percent from a year ago. Low international oil prices led to the export drop of related products. Also, semiconductor shipments, which had been brisk during the first half of the year, turned downward in the last quarter, and the decline in the export of steel and shipbuilding became steeper amid the supply glut.
The drop of export leading index shows foreign shipments would remain in the doldrums through the first three months of the year, the report said.
The export leading index is made to forecast whether overseas shipments will rise or fall, by taking various factors into account, such as importers' business cycle, imports of raw materials, orders received by major industries and foreign exchange rates, assuming the level of 2010 is 100.
The export leading index of the first quarter is 115.4, down 4.1 percent from the fourth quarter of last year (120.3) and 6.3 percent lower than the same quarter of 2015 (123.2). The index, which rose to 130.4 in the fourth quarter of 2014, plunged to 116.4 in the second quarter of last year, rebounding in the third and fourth quarters but falling back in the first quarter this year.
The report attributed the fall in the export leading index to declines in export prices resulting from low international oil prices, business slumps in major importing countries and the fall in the Korean currency's real effective exchange rate that works to weaken the price competitiveness of Korean exports.
The drop in the amount of exports in the first quarter was estimated to be smaller than that of the final quarter of last year. "This is because exports in the first quarter of 2015 remained at the relatively low level of $133.4 billion," a researcher said.
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