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Tue, February 7, 2023 | 00:36
Economy
'Choinomics' falling flat
내수 살아났지만…정부도 '올 3%대 성장 불투명' 전망
Posted : 2015-10-25 17:19
Updated : 2015-10-26 18:01
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By Choi Kyong-ae

Choi Kyung-hwanFinance Minister

Choi Kyung-hwan
Finance Minister

The government will not achieve its 3.1 percent growth target this year, Finance Minister Choi Kyung-hwan said Saturday, admitting that he had been too optimistic.

This is the first time for the minister, who has pushed a series of stimulus packages dubbed "Choinomics," to say the growth rate will fall short of the government's forecast.

On Saturday in Russia, the finance minister said on the sidelines of a visit to a Hyundai Heavy Industries' corn farm, "It may be hard to achieve the 3.1 percent growth target for this year because exports' contribution to national economic growth is falling further due to a decline in global trading volumes."

Analysts said his remarks implied that Choinomics ― highlighted by a set of measures to encourage households to borrow more to buy apartments, and a 46-trillion-won supplementary budget ― was being phased out, having done little to boost the economy.

Choi has made it clear that he will soon step down to run in the general election next April, saying, "There are many people other than me who can run the economy well."

It is widely believed that Choi, who has been at the helm of the economy for 18 months, will quit in December.

He is drawing a barrage of criticism from experts who say he has abused macroeconomic policies for his own political purposes since President Park Geun-hye named him to the significant post in July last year.

Analysts said Choi's aggressive but less-effective stimulus policies had merely pushed up household debt to more than 1.1 quadrillion won.

Some of the loans extended at lower rates to low credit rated customers might become non-performing and be a burden on the economy, they said.

"We don't expect much from this government," a senior bank executive said. "It has pledged to carry out labor and financial reforms, but they are likely to end up being mere slogans.

"Choinomics is over. The government should have focused on deregulation among other things."

Analysts also said the government had been too optimistic about the outlook.

"The government's growth target remains too lofty to achieve under current market conditions," said Samsung Securities analyst Kim Yong-gu.

Other economists said that external conditions, especially the slowing Chinese economy, would keep the Korean economy from posting any substantial rebound.

They added that China's recent rate cut might boost demand, but it will not help Korea achieve 3.1 percent economic growth this year.

"China's extended monetary easing aimed at pumping more money into the economy and helping lower borrowing costs will allow local businesses to increase their imports from Korea and other major trading partners," said Samsung Securities' Kim.

According to analysts, there is a wide gap in the growth forecasts of private economic institutions and state-run organizations.

Most private think tanks expect Korea to grow by 2.5-2.7 percent this year.

Last week, the Bank of Korea (BOK) lowered its growth outlook to 2.7 percent from its July projection of 2.8 percent, citing China's slowdown as a major threat to Asia's fourth-largest economy. Korea's economy grew 3.3 percent last year.

In the July-September period this year, Korea's economy grew 1.2 percent from a quarter earlier, after posting quarterly growth of less than 1 percent in the past five consecutive quarters, BOK figures show.

To reach 3.1 percent growth this year, however, growth of nearly 2 percent is needed in the fourth quarter alone.

But Lee Jung-beom Korea Investment & Securities, analyst Lee Jung-beom said this looked to be impossible because the economy was expected to grow just 0.8 percent to 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter.


내수 살아났지만…정부도 '올 3%대 성장 불투명' 전망

정부가 그간 고수해 온 올해 3%대 경제성장률 목표를 사실상 내려 잡았다.

최경환 경제부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관이 24일 올 경제성장 전망에 대해 '정부 목표치인 3.1%를 달성하는 데 어려움이 예상된다'고 말한 데 이어 기재부가 25일 내놓은 설명자료를 통해 최 부총리의 발언을 뒷받침한 것이다.

한국은행이 지난 23일 발표한 올해 3분기(7∼9월) 국내 성장률(속보치)을 분석해 보면 내수 부문의 뚜렷한 회복세가 저성장 국면에서 벗어나는 데 큰 역할을 했다.

하지만 국내 경기 회복에도 불구하고 대외 여건의 악화로 정부가 애초 내걸었던 3%대 성장률 달성은 어렵다는 분석이 점차 힘을 얻고 있다.

정부는 연말까지 내수 회복세를 이어가기 위해 정책역량을 집중하는 한편 수출여건 개선 노력도 강화할 방침이다.

◇ 3분기 성장세 견인한 내수…추경 등 정책대응 효과 두드러져

기획재정부가 이날 내놓은 자료에 따르면 전분기 대비 올 3분기 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률은 1.2%로 2010년 2분기의 1.7% 이후 5년여 만에 가장 높았다.

이 가운데 내수의 기여도가 1.9%포인트를 차지하며 순수출 부문에서 0.7%포인트 감소 요인을 보완했다.

올해 들어 3분기까지 내수 성장기여도는 3.4%포인트, 순수출은 -1.0%포인트다.

3분기 산업별 기여도를 보면 서비스업(0.5%p)과 건설업(0.2%p) 등 내수업종이 수출 경기의 영향을 받는 제조업(0.0%p) 등 부문에서 부진한 것을 보완했다.

기재부는 '적극적 정책대응 등에 힘입어 내수의 성장모멘텀이 확대되며 저성장 고리를 단절한 것'이라고 평가했다.

내수성장 측면을 자세히 보면 3분기 민간소비와 정부소비, 건설투자의 성장기여도가 각각 0.6%포인트, 0.3%포인트, 0.7%포인트로 대부분을 차지했다.

올 들어 9월까지 주택거래량이 90만2천호를 기록하며 금년 사상 최대치를 기록할 것으로 전망되는 등 주택시장 회복세가 지속되고 있다. 

이에 대해 기재부는 '신속한 정책대응이 긍정적 영향을 미치고 있다'고 평가했다.

실제로 정부는 7∼9월 추가경정예산(추경) 집행률을 당초 계획보다 2.7%포인트 높은 66.6%를 달성했다.

또 정부의 지난 8월 자동차 개별소비세 인하 조치 이후 9월 국산자동차 판매량이 작년 같은 달보다 15.5% 증가했다.

사회간접자본(SOC) 분야 재정집행이 확대돼 토목건설도 올 8월들어 증가세(11.5%↑)로 전환하는 등 정부소비와 투자를 합한 재정의 성장기여도는 0.8%포인트 이상 되는 것으로 추정된다.

기재부 관계자는 '사스 등 유사한 경험을 했던 다른 국가에 비해 메르스(중동호흡기증후군) 영향을 빠르게 극복했다'며 '작년의 세월호 사고 당시보다 소비가 큰 폭으로 반등했다'고 말했다.

추경 이후 현재 경기판단에 대한 소비자심리지수(CSI)가 예년에 비해 큰 폭으로 개선되고 있는 것도 긍정적 신호다.

기재부는 올 4분기에도 코리아 블랙프라이데이(10월1일∼14일)와 연말 개소세 인하 효과와 더불어 정부의 재정확대 노력이 경제활력 제고의 '마중물' 역할을 해 민간과 내수를 중심으로 한 회복세를 이끌 것으로 전망했다.

◇ 성장 발목 잡는 수출…소비·투자활력 제고에 정책역량 집중

그러나 대외적으로는 세계교역량이 정체상태인 데다가 중국의 3분기 경제성장률이 6.9%에 머물며 경기둔화 우려가 지속되는 상황이다.

따라서 우리나라의 수출 부진이 당분가 계속돼 내수 중심의 경제성장이 불가피하다는 관측이 나온다.

최 부총리가 24일 러시아 우스리스크의 현대중공업 연해주농장을 방문한 자리에서 연합뉴스기자와 만나 '하방리스크로 인해 정부 목표치인 3.1%를 달성하는 데 어려움이 예상된다'고 말한 것은 그런 배경에서다.

최 부총리가 올해 경제성장률 목표 달성에 회의적인 언급을 명시적으로 한 것은 처음이다.

그는 한국은행이 속보치로 발표한 3분기 성장률(1.2%)에 대해 '서프라이즈다. 추경과 정부 소비 진작책 등의 정책적 효과가 상당히 반영된 것'이라고 평가하면서 '내수는 살아나고 있지만 중국의 경기 둔화 등 세계적인 교역 부진으로 경제성장에 대한 수출의 기여도가 낮은 어려움이 있다'고 말했다. 

올 1·2분기 성장률이 각각 0.8%, 0.3%에 그쳐 4분기에는 1.2%를 기록한 3분기보다도 높은 수치가 나와야 연간 3%대 성장이 가능해진다.

하지만 전기대비 기저효과와 수출 부진 등을 감안하면 현실적으로 달성하기 어렵다는 것이 전문가들의 관측이다.

기재부는 '만약 순수출 기여도가 0.5%포인트에 이르는 등 과거 추세 정도의 수출이 이뤄졌다면 올해 3%대 후반 이상의 성장도 가능했을 것'이라고 설명했다.

한국은 선진국에 비해 여전히 수출보다 내수 비중이 낮아 대외여건 변화에 따른 경기변동성을 완화하려면 지속적인 내수 확대가 중요한 과제로 떠오르고 있다.

이에 대해 기재부는 '3분기 내수회복세가 4분기에도 유지·확대될 수 있도록 소비·투자 활력을 높이는 데 정책역량을 집중하겠다'고 밝혔다.

아울러 한·중 FTA(자유무역협정) 조기 비준 등 수출여건 개선을 위한 노력을 강화할 방침이다.  (연합뉴스)
Emailcka@ktimes.com Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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