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Fri, March 24, 2023 | 02:20
Economy
Rate cut still insufficient to boost economy
기준금리 '추가인하론' vs '금리정책 한계론' 격돌
Posted : 2014-10-16 18:21
Updated : 2014-10-16 19:21
Yoon Ja-young
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By Yoon Ja-young

The Bank of Korea's (BOK) rate cut of 0.25 percentage points to 2 percent Wednesday will be insufficient to invigorate the sagging domestic consumption and corporate investment, analysts said.

"The government has been using almost all stimulus measures available, not only the rate cut but also expanding government spending and deregulating the real estate market. It will see some positive effect," said Lee Geun-tae, an economist at LG Economic Research Institute.

However, Lee points out that the domestic economy isn't picking up despite a rate cut in August. "Due to economic uncertainties both domestic and abroad, the economic players aren't turning to consumption or investment," he said.

"It will take time to see any effect of a rate cut. The uncertainties should be cleared, and the real estate market should continue to improve. Only then will domestic consumption pick up," he said.

Lim Jean, an economist at the Korea Institute of Finance, points out the current interest rate isn't high. In other words, it is not the reason why consumption and investment is sluggish.

However, he said that the multi directional policy mix will help people believe that it won't get worse. "They won't immediately increase consumption and investment, but they will come to have better expectations."

Im No-jung, IM Investment and Securities, says the interest rate doesn't play as much role as the government thinks. "Businesses are reluctant to invest not because they don't have money or because the interest rate is high," he said.

He said the interest rate cut is like double-edged sword for households. "It may lessen the burden on those who borrowed money, but don't forget that some make consumption from the interest they earn. When you add up the pluses and minuses, the rate cut may have little effect on consumption."

Regarding household debt which could increase further due to the rate cut, most economists say that it hasn't reached a worrisome level yet.

"Though the quantity of the debt is huge, there still aren't signs that the soundness of the financial institutions is deteriorating," Lee said.

In the long term, however, it may be a problem. "Those who need immediate cash will be borrowing more thanks to lower interest rates, but it won't increase overall spending. They may face a problem paying the money back later if the economy continues to be in bad shape," Lim said.



A further rate cut?

Some economists expect a further rate cut.

"I think there is possibility of a further rate cut if the economy doesn't pick up. This is because rate policy has less side effects compared with other policy measures," Lee said.

Im expects another rate cut in the first quarter of next year. "It is doubtful whether the economy will have picked up by then. When you look overseas, the low interest rate has become a perennial thing. It means the global economy isn't picking up."

He said that as Korea is highly dependent on overseas trade, the two rate cuts and 41 trillion won stimulus package announced by the government won't help the economy. "Moreover, inflation for September stood at mere 1.1 percent. If this continues, there is a risk of Korea falling into the low-growth, low-inflation trap like Japan."

However, Lim said the government should be careful in considering a further rate cut.

"It has reached 2 percent already. It is time to think how far we can go. Japan was in similar situation two decades ago. It continued lowering the interest rate and expanding government spending to boost the economy. The former reached zero percent and government debt snowballed," he said.

He pointed out that as an open and small economy, Korea can't lower the rate indefinitely like other developed economies. "We will face an exodus of foreign capital. Korea has only a limited number of opportunities to cut the rate."

"As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects, the current economic slowdown is likely to continue for long time. Instead of another rate cut, it would be better to focus on channeling the money to flow smoothly to those who need it, like SMEs. It is time to take more selective and specific measures."

He said the key lies in employment. "There should be more quality jobs to expand household income, though it won't be easy due to structural problems."


기준금리 '추가인하론' vs '금리정책 한계론' 격돌

한국경제학회·금융연구원 세미나…美 금리인상 대응책 논의

한국은행이 기준금리를 역대 최저 수준인 연 2.0%로 인하한 가운데 추가 금리 인하로 경기를 확실한 회복 궤도에 올려놓아야 한다는 주장과 추가적인 금리 정책에는 한계가 있다는 주장이 맞붙었다.

한국경제학회와 한국금융연구원 주최로 15일 열린 '미국의 금리 인상 전망과 신흥시장국의 정책 대응' 세미나에서 오정근 건국대 특임교수는 '한국은행이 올해 12월이나 내년 초에 한 차례 더 기준금리를 인하해야 한다'고 주장했다.

오 교수는 '미국이 기준금리 인상을 시작하기 전까지 충분히 경기를 활성화시키고 외화유동성을 확보해야 한다'며 '추가 금리 인하로 원·엔 환율 하락에 대응할 필요성 또한 크다'고 말했다.

오 교수는 '미국 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)가 내년 9월께 기준금리를 인상할 것이라는 전망이 우세했지만, 유럽의 경기 둔화 우려로 그 시기가 내년 4분기로 늦춰질 듯 하다'고 말했다.

한국 경제가 내년 3분기 중 미국 금리 인상이 촉발한 금융 불안에 휩싸일 수 있기 때문에 적어도 2분기까지는 확실한 완화정책을 펴야 한다는 것이다.

오 교수는 '엔저 환경에서 내년 경제성장률 3.7%를 달성하려면 연평균 원·달러 환율은 달러당 1,090원, 엔·원 환율은 100엔당 860원대가 유지돼야 한다'고 봤다.

그러면서 '이를 위해 연평균 기준금리를 1.8% 수준으로 낮게 유지해야 한다'고 말했다.

그는 '원·엔 환율이 더 떨어지면 내년 수출 증가율이 1%에도 못 미칠 수 있다'며 '적정 수준의 금리와 환율 정책조합이 매우 중요한 시기'라고 강조했다.

반면, 박종상 한국금융연구원 선임연구원은 미국 기준금리 인상에 통화정책으로 대응하는 것은 한계가 있다는 견해를 밝혔다.

연준이 내년 하반기 이후 기준금리 인상을 시작할 것이란 데는 박 연구원도 의견을 함께했다. 그는 미국 시장금리가 급격하게 오르기보다는 점진적으로 상승할 가능성이 크다고 봤다.

박 연구원은 '한국 시장금리도 상승하겠지만, 장기 국채 수요가 탄탄해 급격한 금리 변동이 발생하지 않을 것'이라며 '다만, 신흥국에서 외환위기가 일어나면 급격한 달러 회수로 금융시장 변동성이 크게 높아질 가능성은 있다'고 말했다.

그는 '대외 요인으로 촉발된 금리 변동에 대한 대응에 있어 정책금리의 역할은 제한적'이라며 '단기적 금리정책으로 대응하기보다는 장기적 차원에서 금융안정성을 높이기 위한 노력이 필요하다'고 강조했다.

이날 세미나에서는 한은이 금리 동결 기조를 지나치게 길게 이어가기보다는 어느 쪽으로든 움직이는 것이 좋다는 의견도 나왔다.

이영섭 서울대 교수는 '시장에 시그널을 준다는 측면에서 인상 쪽이든, 인하 쪽이든 움직이는 것이 효과가 있다'고 말했다.

금리 인하로 한은이 '할 일'을 한만큼 앞으로 재정정책의 역할이 좀 더 중요해질 것이라는 견해도 있었다.

이준협 현대경제연구원 경제동향분석실장은 '금리 인하와 경기부양책이 시너지 효과를 내면 경제주체들의 심리를 되살리는 데 분명히 도움이 될 것'이라며 '이제 정부가 내년 예산을 조기 집행하고 필요하다면 추가경정예산을 편성하는 등 재정확대에 노력을 기울일 필요가 있다'고 말했다.

세미나 참가자들은 미국 금리 인상 여파로 국내에서 외국인 투자자금이 급격히 빠져나갈 가능성은 작으며, 구조개혁을 통한 국내 경제의 체질 개선이 필요하다는 데에는 의견을 함께 했다. (연합뉴스)
Emailyjy@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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