By Kim Tae-gyu
This is the second in a series of articles on the growing skepticism in South Korea in China’s role as a mediating power with North Korea amid a continuing series of problematic events. _ ED.
Stepping into the Korean War (1950-53) to help North Korea, China’s communist leader Mao Zedong compared the relationship between the two countries to ``lips and teeth’’ _ if the lips are gone, the teeth would shiver in the cold.
Many South Korean experts point out that their relationship remains very much the same, defying anecdotal cases as shown in WikiLeaks that Beijing is ready to abandon Pyongyang.
The experts think China is a force standing in the way of achieving the reunification of the two Koreas because the world’s most populous country “can’t live without lips.”
``First of all, I do not believe 100 percent the unidentified Chinese sources quoted in WikiLeaks. Plus, the hasty conclusion based on them defies common sense,’’ professor Yang Moo-jin at the University of North Korean Studies said.
``Beijing would not accept reunification under the stewardship of Seoul. On top of the fact that the North acts as a buffer state, its collapse has a shot at wreaking havoc on China. The country would not accept it.’’
Should Pyongyang’s communist regime collapse to cause reunification headed by the South, Yang predicted almost a half million North Korean refugees would flee to China’s three northeastern provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning.
``The three provinces already accommodate 2 million ethnic Koreans. If many other Koreans flood the regions, China might struggle to control the areas, the worst-case scenario for the country,’’ Yang said.
``In addition, North Korea’s nuclear weapons might end up in the wrong hands, say, anti-Chinese warriors composed of minority groups. In this climate, would China okay the unification?’’
Professor Kim Yong-hyun at Dongguk University concurs.
``If the South governed the whole Korean Peninsula, this would mean China has to face the influence of the United States on its border. China would not be able to brace for this,’’ Kim said.
``Of course, there may be other causes of headaches like the refugee flow. Anyway, China is unlikely to support reunification initiated by Seoul.’’
A historian at a Seoul university said that the geographic uniqueness of the Korean Peninsula should be factored in.
``From the perspective of China, the Korean Peninsula is kind of a port where ocean powers can land. Therefore, the country butted into the Korean War and the Japanese invasion of Korea in 1592 sustaining great damage,’’ said the professor who asked not to be named.
``Well aware of the geographic significance of Korea, China cannot afford the luxury of losing the all-important buffer state no matter how much the North generates troubles.’’
By contrast, Korea Institute of Defense Analysis senior researcher Back Seung-joo came up with an opposing view.
``I also do not think that the unidentified Chinese diplomats, who were quoted in the WikiLeaks, represent the official opinions of the Chinese government. It might be personal beliefs,’’ Back said.
``Yet, the story is plausible. Because North Korea continues to make trouble, China might prefer to border the reunified Korea led by the South as long as it doesn’t employ anti-Chinese policies.’’
According to WikiLeaks, South Korea’s then Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Chun Yung-woo told U.S. Ambassador Kathleen Stephens in February that two high-level Chinese officials believed Seoul should take control of all of Korea.