BOK Raises Growth Outlook to 5.2%

By Lee Hyo-sik
Staff Reporter

The Bank of Korea (BOK) upgraded its 2010 growth projection for the Korean economy to 5.2 percent, Monday, from an earlier estimate of 4.6 percent made in December last year, citing a stronger-than-expected global economic rebound. The figure is even higher than the government's 5-percent growth forecast.

The upward revision is seen as an indicator that the central bank's analysis of the economy has been more growth-oriented than before since BOK Governor Kim Choong-soo took the helm on April 1.

It reported that Asia's fourth largest economy will expand 6.6 percent in the first half of the year from a year earlier, up from an earlier forecast of 5.9 percent, with the second-half growth rate reaching 4 percent, up from the expected gain of 3.4 percent. It has maintained its growth outlook for 2011 at 4.8 percent.

In 2009, the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.2 percent, down sharply from a 2.3 percent increase in 2008, in the aftermath of the worldwide economic slump. But Korea was one of the three OECD member economies, along with Australia and Poland, to produce a greater value of goods and services than in 2008.

With the global economy recovering from the worst slump since the Great Depression in the 1930s, Korea's outbound shipments and other economic activities this year are now expected to expand at a faster pace than previously thought.

"The world economy has recently shown more concrete signs of an improvement than several months ago. We expect global trade to expand at a faster rate on the back of more robust economic activities in advanced economies. On top of this, a host of upbeat economic indices here and the government's economy-boosting measures over the past few months have made us revise upward our 2010 growth forecast," BOK director general Lee Sang-woo said.

Lee said the private sector ― corporate investment and private consumption ― will make up for waning fiscal spending this year, adding that the job market will improve in line with improving macroeconomic conditions. "But the nation will be unable to create as many jobs as it did before the global crisis, due to falling growth potential."

LG Economic Research Institute economist, Lee Geun-tae echoed the BOK's view, saying GDP here will increase at a faster pace than previously projected.

5.2% 경제 성장 전망

한국은행은 월요일 세계경제의 예상보다 강력한 회복 조짐을 들어 금년 경제 성장을 작년 12월 예상했던 4.6% 보다 0.6% 포인트 높은 5.2%로 상향 조정했다. 이는 정부가 예상한 5%보다도 높은 수치다.

이 같은 상향 조정은 김중수씨가 4월 1일 한은 총재자리를 떠맡은 이후 중앙은행의 경제 분석이 이전보다 더욱 성장 위주라는 지표로 보인다.

아시아 4대 경제 대국인 한국은 전년 대비 상반기 중 당초 5.9% 성장에서 6.6%로 늘어나고 하반기에는 3.4%에서 4%로 늘어날 것으로 한은은 내다봤다. 한은은 또한 2011년에는 경제가 4.8% 성장할 것으로 전망했다.

2009년 국내총생산은 세계 경제 불황 여파로 0.2% 밖에 늘지 않아 전년 2.3% 성장보다 훨씬 둔화된 모습을 보여 주었다. 그러나 한국은 호주 및 폴란드와 함께 전년보다 상품 및 서비스 생산액이 늘어난 3개 OECD 국가 중 하나였다.

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