By Kim Hyun-cheol
Staff Reporter
Climate change is likely to cause a drop in the price of farming land here, a report from a state-run agricultural institute said Wednesday.
Regions suitable for high agricultural output will be found further northward and more vermin and blight outbreaks are likely to occur due to temperature rises in the coming years, which will lead to a fall in overall production, a research team at the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) said.
In a joint study by the KREI and the National Academy of Agricultural Science, the institute forecast a 2-degree Celsius hike in average temperatures will reduce rice production by 4.5 percent per 1,000 square meters, and the decline will be as much as 14.9 percent if there is a 5-degree rise.
Chances for agricultural damage will accordingly grow from natural disasters such as typhoons, torrential rain and snowfall.
A recent report by the Ministry of Environment predicts Korea's temperature and rainfall will have risen 1.2 degrees and 11 percent, respectively, by 2020. Under such circumstances, prices of local farmland could fall by 13.4 million to 18.7 million won ($ 11,340 - $15,770) per hectare, the report said.
With a warming climate, cultivating areas of major farm produce such as apples and peaches have moved from southern areas to northern parts of the country in recent decades and diminished in size, while more local farms are growing subtropical produce.
A long-term blueprint is necessary for farmers to brace for the upcoming climate change, the report concluded. With a target year of 2030, the KREI suggested a step-by-step approach for the development of technologies and infrastructure.
The government needs to reform the current insurance system pertaining to farming households on natural disaster-inflicted damages and educate specialized agricultural officials to manage climate issues, it said.
To actively handle climate change, the establishment of an early warning system is essential in the roadmap, KREI researcher Kim Chang-gil said.
``For Korea, it is also important to develop a long-term forecasting model of global food demand and supply based on a reliable scenario of future climate change,'' Kim said.